Suddenly people aren’t worried so much about emerging markets.
Their currencies haven’t been tanking lately — in fact they’ve been quite strong, especially the Lira.
And already the story is changing.
The latest? Good news for emerging markets from both China and the US.
Here’s Kit Juckes of SocGen:
It would be crazy to declare markets ‘safe’ from a return of EM fears and volatility, but the Fed Chair’s testimony, the lack of major US data today, double-digit export and import growth in China in January (with all due caveats about data quality), and a calendar which will see Mark Carney try to sound dovish before Australia reports a rebound in employment tonight, doesn’t seem too threatening.
In the last 24 hours we’ve had two important points.
One is that Yellen sounded suitably dovish at her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony yesterday, making it clear that she felt the labour market was a long way from recovered.
And we’ve had strong Chinese trade growth, with a nice pickup in imports for January.
So if part of the anti-EM story was weakening China and a tightening Fed, for now both of those stories have been put on hold