Your 10-second guide to today’s China GDP release


China will release a raft of important economic data later today, including Q2 GDP.

Despite being a snapshot on the performance of the world’s second largest economy, something that would normally be influential across boarder financial markets, this release has lost much of its market-moving clout of recent years given it almost always fails to surprise, at least to the downside.

Here’s the state of play.


  • In the previous quarter, the economy expanded by 6.9% from a year earlier, topping expectations for a smaller increase of 6.8%.
  • It was the fastest increase since the September quarter of 2015.
  • In each of the past nine reports, the year-on-year GDP figure has either met or beaten the median economist forecast by 0.1%. None have come in below over this period.
  • That curious bout of stability — unprecedented compared to other major economies — probably explains why it has lost it’s ability to move markets significantly in recent years.
  • Today, the median economist forecast is centred around an increase of 6.8% year-on-year, still above the 6.5% level set as the minimum allowable growth rate rate for 2017 by the Chinese government.
  • Of the 60 economists polled by Thomson Reuters, individual forecasts range from 6.5% to 7%.
  • On a quarterly basis, GDP is expected to expand 1.7% in seasonally adjusted terms, an improvement on the 1.3% pace achieved in Q1.
  • Outside of the GDP report, markets will also receive industrial output, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment figures for the month of June.
  • Industrial output is expected to grow 6.5% year-on-year, unchanged from the level reported in May, while retail sales are tipped to slow to 10.6% from 10.7%.
  • Urban fixed asset investment is tipped to have grown 8.5% in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period a year earlier, down from 8.6% in the first five months of the year.
  • If the recent trend is maintained, the risks for all three releases appear to be slanted to the upside. PMI, trade and bank lending figures for June, all released earlier in the month, have all beaten market expectations by some margin.

All four reports will be released at midday AEST.

Business Insider will have all of the details once they hit the screens.