In contrast to the fears seen in late 2015 and early 2016, China’s economy has been off the radar for many investors this year.
Somewhat remarkably, for the second largest economy in the world, it rarely gets a mention nowadays.
Major economic data is almost always around expectations while volatility in the Chinese yuan and stock market is nowhere near the levels seen just a few years ago.
It suggests that near-term risks facing the economy are declining, at least in the minds of investors.
Raymond Yeung, Chief Greater China Economist at ANZ Bank, certainly thinks so, presenting this updated version of potential risks of a “black swan” event impacting the Chinese economy.
In his opinion, the near-term risks are now “extinct” with prior concerns surrounding a trade war between China and the US, and a potential collapse in the housing market subsiding further over the past three months.
While black swan events are, by their very nature, impossible to predict, the risks presented by Yeung could be deemed to be grey swans, or those that are already known but unlikely to happen.
Yeung is forecasting that the Chinese economy will grow by 6.5% next year as the emergence of new industries such as services and technology helps to offset a likely slowdown in credit growth.