The latest from the Chicago Fed would seem to suggest that, perhaps, the economy had a less than stellar June, which probably won’t surprise anyone.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.05 in June from +0.31
in May. The CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity returned very
close to its historical trend in June after reaching its highest level since March 2006 in May.
With regard to inflation, it indicates subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity
over the coming year.
Production-related indicators made a contribution of –0.11 to the index in June, down from
+0.61 in May. Industrial production edged up 0.1 per cent in June after increasing 1.3 per cent
in May; manufacturing production declined 0.4 per cent in June after increasing 1.0 per cent in
the previous month.
Photo: Chicago Fed