Or select individually:
- Here Comes The Year-Three Presidential Rally
- And The Energy Source Of The Future Is…
- An Update On The S&P 500 Priced In Gold
- This Is The Purchasing Trend That Screams American Revival
- The Scariest Crash Is The Muni Bond Crash
Broyhill Asset Management see a rally coming, and it's not just because of the current round of QE. This is all about tradition, and Presidents seeking more accommodative monetary policy in year-three of their administrations.
From Broyhill Asset Management's letter (via The View from the Blue Ridge):
According to work done by William Hester of Hussman Funds, the twelve month period beginning in October of the second year of the Presidential Cycle has enjoyed total returns in excess of 28 per cent. Not too shabby, especially when one considers that we have not registered more than a marginal loss in a single Year Three for almost a century.
What's the explanation for this? Broyhill Asset Management suggest it is Presidents pushing Fed Chairman to make their policies more accommodative in an effort to buoy their re-election campaigns. Their evidence: Nixon did it, famously, on tape prior to the 1972 elections.
While this liquidity isn't going to change the economy for the better, it is going to send stocks surging while 'the monetary spigots will be running Wide Open,' between now and the 2012 elections.
Take a look at just how large the surge is in year three typically.
As made clear by the International Energy Agency in its new World Energy Outlook, coal production is expected to explode, most notably in China. And bear in mind that this is taking into account a scenario whereby policy measures are implemented to curb its production.
Pricing the S&P 500 has become in gold is all the rage and the WSJ just did an updated on this, so we figured we'd to the same.
Since then, gold has rallied yet again and, while the S&P 500 has rallied over that period in dollar terms, in gold it is much less impressive.
In fact, the S&P 500 has actually declined since September, if you value your portfolio in gold.
If you believe in the American revival, and Deutsche Bank certainly does, than the stat they've handpicked as a signal of future growth will make perfect sense to you.
Nothing screams U.S. recovery more than an increase in auto sales, according to Deutsche Bank. Their analysts say the November sales beat of 12.3 million over 11.8 million expected suggests November retail sales should beat estimates.
China crashed last night, but it's been riding a rocketship, so that's not a huge surprise.
Commodities are crashing today, but speculative have driven those up a lot, too, so it was natural they'd get hammered.
The scariest crash right now? Muni bonds.
As Bespoke notes the National Muni Bond Fund ETF has totally fallen out of bed. This has been a big fear for a while. Between the anti-bailout GOP Congress, and the worsening situation in California, maybe people are realising this is real.