It’s been 92 months since the United States economy was in recession, based off methodology used by the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the equal third-longest period of uninterrupted growth since the end of World War II.
And, if ANZ’s Recession Monitor is anything to go by — a gauge that tracks the probability of a recession occurring within 12 months — that run of looks set to continue for some time yet.
It’s not quite nothing, but minuscule, as seen in the chart below from ANZ.
It shows the ANZ Recession Monitor, overlaid against periods when the US economy was in recession based on NBER methodology.
The probability is currently seen at just 1.5%.
Tom Kenny and Giulia Specchia, economists at ANZ, say that most of the business cycle indicators the NBER monitors to adjudge whether the US is in recession continue to be in expansion mode.
“Notably, the labour market and household income components remain solid which suggests the economy is far from recession. Industrial production growth, which was the weakest link, has returned to positive year-on-year growth,” they wrote.