CHARTS: A Statistical Guide To The Melbourne Cup - Or How To Pick Today's Winner

Our pick Fiorente winning last year’s Cup (Photo: Getty/Vince Caligiuri)

[UPDATE 3.15PM: This model has now correctly picked the winner two years in a row.]

It’s Melbourne Cup Day – that one day in November when millions of occasional Punters have their only bet of the year.

It turns us into instant Les Carlyons, Johnie Tapps and Andrew Eddies.

And so it is here at Business Insider where last year we launched our inaugural statistical take on the Cup which picked the winner – Fiorente.

Go you good thing!

Personally I’d like to rest on my laurels. But alas the editor says, as is the way of editors, he wants another tip.

So here we go.

We’re looking for a guide from:

    Age – not too young and not too old.
    So sorry Red Cadeaux, Royal Diamond, Precedence and Willing Foe.

    Type of Horse – With all due respect to Let’s Elope and Makybe Diva the blokes have it.

    Unfortunately my local horse Lucia Valentina gets knocked out along with the brilliant My Ambivalent as well as Unchain My Heart

    Barrier – 5, 11, 14 and 10 predominate
    Over 3200 metres you’d figure that you’d get a wider distribution as distance trumps a dud barrier draw and that’s exactly what we see.

    But if we look for a horse or gelding, four, five or six out of barriers 5, 11, 10 or 14 what do we get?

    Lidari, Protctionist and Opinion

    Number – If there is a way to gauge who the handicapper thinks is the best, the numbers have it. But he also gives the higher numbers more weight.

    The stand-outs are numbers 12, 4 and 1 followed by 6 and 8 then 5,2 and 11.

So who do we end up with?

Which Horse fits our male, 4, 5 or 6 years old, out of our favourite barriers and carry one of these saddle clothes?

There is but one.

Protectionist – a 5 year old horse carrying the 5 saddle cloth out of barrier 11.

I’ll be having 20 bucks each way on him to win but hoping the Hunter Valley’s own Lucia Valentina proves herself as good as she is said to be.

Good Luck – you’ll need it.

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