CHART OF THE DAY: Crappy Winters Usually Mean Awesome Springs

This winter, the big argument among market economists has been to what extent this season’s batch of crappy weather has affected economic data.

U.S. industrial production has decreased, retail sales disappointed, mortgage applications fell, housing data was lousy.

“The good news is that this is likely only transient noise, and that rising temperatures in March and April should revive everything from auto sales to factory activity, helping the U.S. economy return to its improving trend,” writes Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd. “Pent-up consumer demand should re-accelerate growth in the spring after this short, sharp pain, setting the United States on course for solid growth in 2014 of 3.5 per cent or more.”

The weak data is likely temporary, Minerd says. “Based on past experiences where cold weather depressed retail sales in January, there could be a meaningful rebound in consumer activity in the coming months as pent-up demand is released.”

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