A new paper shows how lack of exports after the recession has killed the U.K. and bailed out the U.S.
Co-authored by Gavyn Davies, a Financial Times blogger and chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Prisma Capital Partners, the paper asks why U.K. GDP has stalled since 2007, while Americas has improved.
The answer, via Davies’ write-up of his research in the FT: “fiscal policy is responsible for a little less than half of the UK’s under-performance compared with the US, with much of the rest being due to the sluggish growth of UK export markets in recent years.”
the UK’s greater exposure to the recession-hit markets of the eurozone has been very damaging, especially in the past two years. Second, and actually much more important, the UK’s lack of exposure to the rapidly growing markets in the emerging economies has been a major structural problem in recent years. The US, in contrast, has greatly increased its exposure to the emerging markets, notably in Latin America.
Davies and co-author Juan Antolin-Diaz actually looked at all the other possibilities for the growth gap, assigned weighted responsibility to each, and put them in this nifty chart:
Photo: Gavyn Davies
Davies concludes that U.K.’s parliament should look much more closely at how to close this export gap.
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