Today is National Signing Day as the top high school football players make their commitment to a university for the next 3-5 years in hopes of someday playing in the NFL.
If we look back at the last three high school football classes that have exhausted their college eligibility (2006-08) we see there is about a 50% chance that kids ranked among ESPN.com’s top-50 high school recruits will someday play in the NFL.
During that period, 15 of the 150 players (10%) went on to be drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Overall, 41% (61 of 150) were drafted and 51% (77/150) have played at least one game in the NFL. In other words, on average, schools that land top-50 players have about a 50% chance of landing an NFL-calibre player.
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