The worst of the economic downturn in Australia’s mining states and territories appears to be over, according to the chart below.
Courtesy of ANZ, it’s the bank’s “Stateometer” for January — an indicator that uses trends across 37 individual economic data points to determine how individual states and territories are currently performing.
Any state or territory on the top half of the chart is growing above trend while anyone in the bottom half is growing below trend. On the bottom axis, anything on the left suggests that economic activity is slowing while anything on the right says its accelerating.
The bold symbols indicate where each currently sits, with the lighter symbol where it sat in the prior month.
Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia have all shifted to the right, indicating that economic activity is beginning to improve.
And the Northern Territory economy is also gaining traction, and growing at its historic trend pace.
That performance is in stark contrast to that of a year ago, as seen in ANZ’s Stateomoeter from January 2016.
“A key theme in this month’s release is the improved momentum in the mining states of Queensland and Western Australia,” said Giulia Lavinia Specchia and Cherelle Murphy, members of ANZ’s economics team.
“This suggests the weight of their downturns is easing in light of improved commodity prices and rising resource exports.”
While Queensland and Western Australia continue to grow at a below-trend pace, Specchia and Murphy say this partly reflects their very strong growth rates during the height of the commodity boom.
It appears that the light at the end of the tunnel is now getting larger.