There are many things investors have come to expect in the post-GFC world.
Lower wages growth, subdued inflationary pressures, increasingly inventive central bank monetary policy and, perhaps topping the list, disappointing global economic growth.
Year after year it has underwhelmed, defying forecasts that the highly-anticipated rebound is just around the corner.
Nothing demonstrates this pattern of over-promising only to under-deliver more than the chart below.
It comes from the US Council of Economic Advisers in its latest Economic Report of the President released earlier in the week.
And boy does it tell a story.
As you can see, it plots forecasts offered by the IMF for global economic growth going back to 2011, comparing it to actual global growth up until 2015.
The pattern is clear.
Each year global growth is expected to rebound in the period ahead, only later than what was first imagined.
The pattern is so consistent that Nike could be prompted to provide corporate backing for IMF researchers.
Not to single out the IMF, the pattern has been consistent among other noted forecasters such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, along with many in the private sector.
Given the recent trend, perhaps investors should pencil in the fabled rebound as soon as the forecasters give up.
Here’s the link to council’s 2016 report. If you like macroeconomic and charts, Chapter 3 has your name written all over it.
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