On Monday, Oppenheimer’s top strategist John Stoltzfus unveiled his 2013 targets for the S&P 500. He sees the index ending the year at 1,585 with earnings per share of $108.Here’s his commentary:
We continue to believe that prospects remain good for economic growth to reassert itself as challenges are persistently met by concerted efforts of country officials and central bankers around the world aided and abetted by secular trends larger than the cyclical hurdles in the immediate path. We expect the process of fostering an economic recovery from the grips of a global financial crisis will persist and ultimately prove successful. We believe that the performance of the equity market stateside, and increasingly the performance of stock markets outside the US as well, point to that end. Equity markets are historically known to be discounting mechanisms for what lies ahead.
Stoltzfus’ report looks back at Obama’s presidency to see how the stock market performed.
With Election Day only 35 days away, we look at the overall performance of the S&P 500 and the 10 GICs/Sectors over the course of the last four years. In the period, the benchmark and its sectors rallied dramatically from their lows of the financial crisis/housing bubble bust.
Republicans might argue that President Obama assumed the presidency near the market’s trough and conveniently benefited from the rally that ensued. Democrats might counter that policy implementation and platform initiatives created an environment for substantial equity outperformance. As strategists, we’ll let our readers decide for themselves.
Here’s a sector-by-sector break down: