SocGen: Here's The Horrifyingly Realistic Scenario That Could Send Stocks Below Their 2009 Lows

Given the recent decoupling of the S&P 500 from European stocks and other markets, is the U.S. really set to outperform?

SocGen presents this chart, hinting perhaps not (it overlays Japanese stocks during their lost decade with U.S. stocks and European stocks starting 11 years later):

Chart

Photo: Société Générale

SocGen thinks the next EU summit could be crucial in determining the next move in developed world stock markets:

A Japanese-style scenario for the eurozone could gain traction, particularly if the 28-29 June EU summit fails to deliver concrete results. The capacity of European leaders to agree on the eurozone’s future is key to restoring the Greek population’s confidence and avoiding social unrest. In contrast, if the outcome is paralysis we can expect equity markets to plunge even deeper, to 2009 levels and even below if the Japanese-style scenario were to materialise.

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