One of the oldest “rules” on Wall Street is “sell in May and go away.”
Based on some rough historical observations, someone decided that it might be a great idea to stay out of the stock market between May and some time in the fall.
FBN Securities J.C. O’Hara ran the numbers for the past 20 years and charted the returns.
“The majority of the time the market was unimpressive over those summer months,” he said. “The majority of the markets returns were housed in the first model that was long the months into May and the months after Sept.”
Of course, history is at best a guide, not gospel.
“As we approach May we are not in the SELL camp yet, but rather acknowledge the fact that a volatile, sideways moving market is what history implies,” said O’Hara.