On Sunday afternoon, the New England Patriots completed an incredible comeback win over the Saints with a Tom Brady touchdown pass with just five seconds remaining. Just a few hours later and 30 miles away, a David Ortiz grand slam helped the Red Sox overcome a huge deficit in the ALCS.
But which one was the bigger comeback?
Below is a look at the win probability for both teams in each of their games which measure the chances for each team to win their game at any given point (more on the charts below)…
For the Red Sox, the lowest point came at the end of the seventh inning when they were trailing 5-1 and failed to get a baserunner in the inning. At that point, Boston had a 3.6% chance of winning the game. Even when the Red Sox loaded the bases for Ortiz, they still had just a 7.5% chance of winning. But after the grand slam, the chances jumped to 52.7%.
Unlike the Red Sox, who trailed most of the game, the Patriots led for most of the first three quarters. However, with New England losing by one with less than three minutes remaining, the Pats failed to convert a fourth down deep in their own end dropping their win probability to just 4.8%.
Even with the Patriots driving down the field in the final minute, they still had just a 5% chance of winning the game when Brady missed a couple of receivers near the end zone. But after converting a fourth down just prior to the winning touchdown, the chances jumped to 64.3%.
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