Australia is currently in the middle of an unprecedented apartment building binge, particularly in the eastern capitals.
The skies are littered with cranes, but with so much high rise construction activity going on, there’s been more than a little unease over the prospect of an apartment glut forming, particularly in Brisbane and Melbourne’s inner city areas.
The Reserve Bank of Australia have been sounding the alarm for some time now, along with analysts at Citibank.
If these charts are anything to go by, it seems the high rise building binge is already starting to take its toll on prices.
CoreLogic’s September quarter Pain and Gain report offers a snapshot of property resale values over that period, and shows the proportion of loss-making unit sales in Brisbane and Melbourne is trending higher recently, particularly in Brisbane.
According to CoreLogic, nearly 20% of all units sold at a loss in Brisbane during the September quarter, while 10.5% of Melbourne sales were also for less than what the originally purchase price.
Here’s the chart tracking loss-making sales in Brisbane.
And the chart for Melbourne.
They clearly remain elevated, and that’s before additional stock, currently under construction, hits these markets.
According to figures released by the ABS, there were over 30,000 “other” residential dwellings — almost entirely units — under construction in Queensland in the 2016 September quarter. Most of them are in Brisbane.
There was an even larger number – in excess of 45,000 – under construction in Melbourne over the same period.
A lot of stock has yet to hit these markets, in other words.
It’s little wonder why some are concerned about the outlook for prices, and potential side effects such as an increase in mortgage and developer defaults.