This is definitely the story of the morning…
For several days, we’ve been talking about how bad Spanish equity markets have been performing, but actually the bond market has been tame.
Today the country is getting hit where it hurts.
The country had a mediocre auction of 3-year debt, and now rates are rising across the curve.
The 10-year yield has been exploding higher all morning, as you can see clearly in the intraday chart from Bloomberg.
Remember: If the market were to totally lose faith in Spain, it could be like Greece, except a really big deal because the economy is so much bigger and the debt market is huge. It would be too big to fail, but perhaps, as Nouriel Roubini likes to say, too big to save.
As a 30-second reminder of the situation in Spain:
- Unemployment, especially youth unemployment is massive.
- The country had a huge real estate bubble, and by some accounts, the popping of that bubble is only halfway done.
- That leaves the banks especially vulnerable.
- Up until recently, people thought it was in relatively good shape, with a relatively low deb-to-GDP ratio, but the new government says the old government was understating the debt situation.
- The new government might be understating the debt situation, too.
- Growth is much worse than anticipated, which also makes the debt-to-GDP number worse.