The U.S. economy is beginning to experience inflation beyond the food and fuel that has thus far dominated debate, according to a report from Deutsche Bank’s Carl Riccadonna.
But don’t expect this rise in inflation to be anything like the 1970s, according to Morgan Stanley Smith Barney’s Jeff Applegate, David Darst, and Charles Reinhard.
They argue that, while headlines about inflation fears may be rattling markets, we’re more likely to be in a post World War II like economic environment than any other in recent history.
From Morgan Stanley Smith Barney:
The period between World War II and the late 1960s was one of high productivity and low inflation, which gave a boost to stock prices. US equities generated a compound average annual return of 14% from 1946 to 1968 (see chart). During those years, inflation was about 3% on average and equities performed 11% per year above inflation. We believe that the US economy is today in another high- productivity, low-inflation environment.
That’s if the U.S. inflation environment remains tame, which is anything but certain.