While it is upsetting news for most of the public that I’ll Have Another has been forced to drop out of the Belmont Stakes, which means the horse cannot be the first horse since 1968 to win the Triple Crown, Wall Street might not be so sad, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Going back to 1928, there have been 10 triple crown winners. Following those 10 victories, the average change of the S&P 500 for the rest of the year was a decline of 9.01% with positive returns only once (Omaha). On the other hand, looking at the S&P’s performance in all years since 1928 where there was not a Triple Crown winner, the index has averaged a gain of 5.23% with positive returns 74% of the time.
Of course this correlation is probably spurious. But the superstitious now have something to be cheery about.