BlackBerry was up 15% today after it got a ringing endorsement from Bernstein Research. Bernstein slapped a $22 price target on the stock based mostly on the notion that investors don’t fully appreciate how big the BlackBerry 10 launch will be.
The 15% jump is the just the latest in a series of big days for BlackBerry which was trading close to $6 at its lowest point recently.
But before people get too excited about Bernstein’s note, or BlackBerry in general, take a look at this chart of Palm when it tried to resurrect its fortunes. Our own Henry Blodget re-published it last week.
As you can see, as Palm worked on its own iPhone-esque software the stock reached $18, up from its lows of $4 a share. By the time the phone actually reached a carrier, Palm’s run was over. What you don’t see on the chart below is the ensuing death spiral and sale to HP.
BlackBerry is a different company than Palm operating in a different environment. Perhaps it won’t follow Palm’s path to the grave. But, if you’re betting on BlackBerry, you better be careful. The last time an aged smartphone innovator revamped its software, it went kaput.