CHART OF THE DAY: This Is The Critical Chart For 2013

button more charts
button chart prev
button chart next

If there are no changes to current law, 2013 promises to bring a big wave of fiscal tightening.

This is due to the fact that spending cuts are kicking in at the same time that the Bush tax cuts are due to expire.

According to a chart from Nomura, it’s theoretically possible that fiscal contraction could knock 5% off of GDP.

But at least then we’ll be cutting the debt, right?

Not so!

A chart in Richard Koo’s latest monster presentation shows what happened in Japan when they tried fiscal consolidation during their long balance sheet recession.

Both times the economy got dramatically worse, and the deficit EXPANDED. Not only did things get bad, but the theoretical benefit didn’t happen either.

Figuring out a way to defuse the 2013 fiscal bomb is critical.

And click here to see Koo’s whole presentation >

chart of the day, Premature Fiscal Reforms In 1997 and 2001 Weakened Economy, Reduced Tax Revenue And Increased Deficit, april 2012

NOW WATCH: Money & Markets videos

Want to read a more in-depth view on the trends influencing Australian business and the global economy? BI / Research is designed to help executives and industry leaders understand the major challenges and opportunities for industry, technology, strategy and the economy in the future. Sign up for free at research.businessinsider.com.au.