The passing of the peak of the mining boom is one of the big forces at work in the Australian economy. Other sectors are being relied on to keep driving growth as resources activity drops off.
And according to research out today it will drop off pretty spectacularly.
This chart was in a report by the government’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. The orange area is the optimistic outlook.
Here’s the BREE explaining the chart, emphasis added. The full report is here.
the projects that are expected to progress to the Committed Stage are insufficient to maintain the current stock of investment as of April 2013. Under this likely scenario the stock of committed investment drops over the next four years, from a peak of $268 billion in 2012 to around $25 billion in 2018. In the possible scenario, if all projects assessed as possible progress to the Committed Stage, committed investment could peak at around $310 billion in 2014 before declining to around $138 billion in 2018.
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