This was today’s most important data point to pay attention to — the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI).
It rose 0.3% in January, after rising 1.2% and 1.1% in December and November respectively. This is shown by the red line below.
The LEI has been rising for 10 straight months, and had a critical inflection point right before the gigantic market rally of 2009. It also correctly began to dip before the U.S. entered recession in December 2007. Simply put, you made a lot of money listening to it recently, and historically it’s one of the few reliable forward indicators that exist.
While today’s January release was slightly weaker than the 0.5% rise expected by many analysts, it nonetheless continued the LEI’s important uptrend. We also shouldn’t forget that the LEI is currently higher than at any time in many years — which means that we can count on growth to hold up at least through the first half of 2010 just based on where the economy is now.
Economist Ken Goldstein @ The Conference Board: “The cumulative change in the U.S. LEI over the past six months has been a strong 9.8 per cent, annualized. This signals continued economic recovery at least through the spring.”
It’s even so high right now that the index could drop a bit in the future, which seems inevitable given the spike, but still augur future economic growth. Anyone short ignores this ‘V’ at their peril:
Get This Delivered To Your Inbox
You can get this dropped in your inbox every afternoon as The Chart Of The Day. It’s a simple. It’s convenient. It’s free. All we need is your email address, country and postal code. Sign up below!
Email CountryUnited StatesAfghanistanAland IslandsAlbaniaAlgeriaAmerican SamoaAndorraAngolaAnguillaAntarcticaAntigua And BarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamasBahrainBangladeshBarbadosBelarusBelgiumBelizeBeninBermudaBhutanBolivia, Plurinational State OfBosnia And HerzegovinaBotswanaBouvet IslandBrazilBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBrunei DarussalamBulgariaBurkina FasoBurundiCambodiaCameroonCanadaCape VerdeCayman IslandsCentral African RepublicChadChileChinaChristmas IslandCocos (keeling) IslandsColombiaComorosCongoCongo, The Democratic Republic Of TheCook IslandsCosta RicaCote D’ivoireCroatiaCubaCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkDjiboutiDominicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEgyptEl SalvadorEquatorial GuineaEritreaEstoniaEthiopiaFalkland Islands (malvinas)Faroe IslandsFijiFinlandFranceFrench GuianaFrench PolynesiaFrench Southern TerritoriesGabonGambiaGeorgiaGermanyGhanaGibraltarGreeceGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuamGuatemalaGuernseyGuineaGuinea-bissauGuyanaHaitiHeard Island And Mcdonald IslandsHoly See (vatican City State)HondurasHong KongHungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIran, Islamic Republic OfIraqIrelandIsle Of ManIsraelItalyJamaicaJapanJerseyJordanKazakhstanKenyaKiribatiKorea, Democratic People’s Republic OfKorea, Republic OfKuwaitKyrgyzstanLao People’s Democratic RepublicLatviaLebanonLesothoLiberiaLibyan Arab JamahiriyaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMacaoMacedoniaMadagascarMalawiMalaysiaMaldivesMaliMaltaMarshall IslandsMartiniqueMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMexicoMicronesia, Federated States OfMoldova, Republic OfMonacoMongoliaMontenegroMontserratMoroccoMozambiqueMyanmarNamibiaNauruNepalNetherlandsNetherlands AntillesNew CaledoniaNew ZealandNicaraguaNigerNigeriaNiueNorfolk IslandNorthern Mariana IslandsNorwayOmanPakistanPalauPalestinian Territory, OccupiedPanamaPapua New GuineaParaguayPeruPhilippinesPitcairnPolandPortugalPuerto RicoQatarReunionRomaniaRussian FederationRwandaSaint BarthelemySaint HelenaSaint Kitts And NevisSaint LuciaSaint MartinSaint Pierre And MiquelonSaint Vincent And The GrenadinesSamoaSan MarinoSao Tome And PrincipeSaudi ArabiaSenegalSerbiaSeychellesSierra LeoneSingaporeSlovakiaSloveniaSolomon IslandsSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth Georgia And South Sandwich IslandsSpainSri LankaSudanSurinameSvalbard And Jan MayenSwazilandSwedenSwitzerlandSyrian Arab RepublicTaiwan, Province Of ChinaTajikistanTanzania, United Republic OfThailandTimor-lesteTogoTokelauTongaTrinidad And TobagoTunisiaTurkeyTurkmenistanTurks And Caicos IslandsTuvaluUgandaUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomUnited States Minor Outlying IslandsUruguayUzbekistanVanuatuVenezuela, Bolivarian Republic OfViet NamVirgin Islands, BritishVirgin Islands, U.s.Wallis And FutunaWestern SaharaYemenZambiaZimbabwe Zip Code
Please Note: Business Insider will never share your information with any other companies. You also have the ability to unsubscribe from these newsletters at any time simply by following the unsubscribe link located at the bottom of each email
NOW WATCH: Money & Markets videos
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.