Writing to clients earlier this week, JP Morgan’s FX Strategists in London noted that 70% of the countries they followed had positive momentum in their PMI’s. That means that 70% of countries have improving manufacturing and services.
But many of these countries have also been, or are still, very weak.
However in a similar vein, the ANZ Commodity team in their Daily report yesterday said that global shipping prices were on the increase:
Capsize freight rates maintained upward momentum, rising 5.4% overnight. Capsize rates are now around 70% higher from a month ago.
(Capsize vessels are the really big ones, too big to go through the Suez and Panama Canals. They have to travel around the Capes of Good Hope and Horn – hence the term Capsize.)
So tying the JP Morgan and ANZ streams of thought together, we just might find confirmation of a global recovery.
Today’s chart of the day of the Baltic Dry Index does just that – it confirms that prices to ship major raw materials by sea have risen on average of 23 routes and various sizes of vessels are up around 40% over the past month.
Prices are still a lot lower than 2010, but a recovery is a recovery, and a synchronised global recovery just might be real.
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