Square, the payments startup run by Twitter cofounder Jack Dorsey, is growing payments volume at a runaway clip—still. Since we last checked in March, payments processed per day have soared 50 per cent.
For Square, payments volume is a very close proxy for revenues: It takes a 2.75% cut of most transactions, which it then splits with Visa, MasterCard, and the banks.
The company has 330 employees at last count. We don’t believe it’s profitable yet, but at these growth rates—20 per cent in the last two months—it could easily make money if it chose to. We think instead it’s going to keep spending to acquire small-business customers.
We did a simple linear-regression curve to see where Square might be in a year’s time. This is a crude forecasting technique, but it shows that Square could easily top $10 billion a year in payments by mid-2013 just by staying the course. If Square raises more money and invests more aggressively, that could easily change the picture.
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