14 years ago, a Gartner analyst named Jackie Fenn created the Gartner Hype Cycle — a chart that maps the way media and consumers perceive technology as it is introduced into culture.
Gartner just updated the Hype Cycle for 2009. It predicts a big backlash coming for e-Book readers, microblogging and cloud computing.
How does the hype cycle work? First the technology is invented, or “triggered.” This leads to an incredible amount of hype, very quickly. Then not much happens right away, people get disappointed, and the tech is mired a “trough of disillusionment.” But then, almost so slowly it’s hard to notice, we enter a “slope of enlightenment,” where we realise just how useful this technology will be. Then we hit the “plateau of productivity,” where we all know what we have in the tech and use it for what it is.
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