You might have read the news yesterday from the Reserve Bank that the prices Australia is receiving for commodity exports are rising in Australian dollar terms.
Well, here comes some more good news from the ANZ about Chinese Commodity Prices, and in particular, volumes.
In their weekly summary of their Chinese Commodity Price Index the ANZ said:
The ANZ-CCI notched its 9th consecutive weekly gain last week, rising by 0.9% to 426 points. For the month of August, the index rose 4.5%, the largest monthly gain in the index since January 2011, and builds on the 3.7% rise in July.
Traders watch Chinese Import and Export data closely, and while the next release is not until next Tuesday, there are signs that there could be another upward surprise based on Iron Ore shipments.
This also from the ANZ:
Iron ore prices look to have peaked, but port stocks remain low by historical standards, despite imports posting seasonal records in each of the past 5 months.
August shows no obvious seasonal pattern in Chinese iron ore imports, but exports of the major countries (Brazil and Australia) and August price action; suggest we should not be surprised to see another record month of iron ore imports by China.
More importantly for Australia are signs that even though the mining “investment” boom might have ended, volumes are still strong.
The good news for Australia’s GDP calculations released on Wednesday this week – and for the rest of the year – is that 2013 is tracking very strongly.
Disclosure: Greg McKenna is an active currency trader and is currently short AUD.
Follow Greg McKenna on Twitter.
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