CHART OF THE DAY: One Of Our favourite Indicators Shows The Market Might Be Nearing A Turning Point

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We seem to come back to this chart every few months, and this time it’s showing that investor expectations are getting absolutely crushed.

Citigroup indices of economic surprise from around the world are all strongly negative, all near one or more year lows.

That means that analyst expectations are way above how the data is coming in, and analysts only get surprised for so long before they adjust their expectations downwards.

While these indices have been pretty accurate in the last few years, their reliability going back 10 years or so is less than stellar. In particular, correlations of the S&P 500 and the CESI indices are not always compelling. That said, other charts suggest that measures of market performance that take into account multiple asset classes jibe closely with economic surprise.

Either way, so long as investor expectations are getting creamed, we should be looking for predictions to be adjusted downwards.

Citi Economic Surprise Index

Photo: Simone Foxman/Business Insider, Data: Bloomberg

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