We are 41 months into the current bull market and stocks are up a staggering 90 per cent. Is this unusual, and should investors be worried?
Not really, argues stock market guru Rich Bernstein. In a new white paper, he writes, “The current cycle’s performance fits well with history, and is in the middle of past cycles’ performances.”
Not only is this not the biggest bull market run we’ve ever experienced, it’s not even the biggest we’ve seen in the last 30 years.
This should bring some comfort to those who are still long on stocks.
Indeed, Bernstein thinks stocks could go higher.
Bull markets typically end when valuations are extreme, the Fed is tightening monetary policy, and investors are over-enthusiastic about potential equity returns. Valuations are quite attractive given that the 10-year t-note yields roughly 1.5%. Investors are very leery of equities, and equities are no longer the asset class of choice. The Fed is considering easing further, and a tightening of monetary policy seems far into the future.
Here’s a chart showing how the current bull market stacks up against previous ones.
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