42% of individual investors are bullish right now, according to most recent sentiment data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). While investor sentiment has changed dramatically since March, we’re still only moderately above the long-term average of 39%.
The problem is that professional investors are likely to be more optimistic than AAII’s investor sentiment, since they became optimistic earlier in the game this year. Overall bullish sentiment could thus be higher once you combine individual investors with these pros.
The market could be approaching a tricky stage whereby one has to gauge the potential for new bulls to be disappointed versus that for further bears or fence-sitters to capitulate. Given the uncertain times, even moderately above-average bullishness, shown below, could signal a short-term sentiment peak.
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