CHART OF THE DAY: 4 Likely Scenarios For The Chinese Economy In 2013

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Weak Chinese economic data in August prompted Morgan Stanley analyst Helen Qiao and her team to downgrade the country’s growth forecast.

They now expect 2012 GDP growth of 7.5 per cent, down from 8 per cent; and 2013 GDP growth of 7.9 per cent, down from 8.6 per cent.

China cut interest rates twice and announced a massive infrastructure stimulus to counter the slowdown. But officials are also expected to refrain from major policy changes for another quarter.

Through various permutations and combinations of policy changes, Qiao drew up four likely economic scenarios for China. But their base case is for the country to experience a “bumpy ride”.

chart of the daym 2013 gdp growth, september 2012

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