Brazil is still the heavy favourite to win the World Cup. But thanks to Neymar’s injury, the home team is now more likely to lose one of their final games than win both according to Nate Silver’s World Cup model.
If Brazil was at full strength for their final two matches, they would have had a 54% chance to win the World Cup. But with Neymar out of the tournament and Thiago Silva suspended for the semifinals match, Brazil’s chances are down to less than 50-50.
The injury to Argentina’s attacking midfielder Angel di Maria, who will miss the semifinals match against Netherlands, may actually be more damaging than Neymar’s injury.
While their chances of winning the World Cup did go up slightly (thanks to Brazil’s chances of reaching the final going down), Argentina’s chance of actually reaching the final took a big blow, going from 57% to a near coin-flip at 53%. Meanwhile, Brazil is still a heavy favourite to beat Germany.
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