With less than 11 minutes left in the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots were down 24-14 and faced a 3rd-and-14 at their own 28-yard line. Things were so bad for the Pats at that point that they had just a 3.3% chance of winning the game, according to PredictionMachine.com.
PredictionMachine.com, simulated the remainder of the Super Bowl 50,000 times after every play. This gave us a good look at which plays have had the biggest impact on who won the game.
The Patriots converted that third down with a 21-yard pass to Julian Edelman and their chances of winning quickly rose from that point, reaching 90.2% after Edelman’s touchdown gave New England a lead with two minutes remaining.
Things quickly swung back in favour of the Seahawks as they had a 63.9% of winning when they had the ball at the 1-yard line with less than 30 seconds to go. The one thing the Seahawks couldn’t do was turn the ball over and that is exactly what happened with Malcolm Butler’s interception.
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