CHART: Morgan Stanley Assesses The Probability Of Every 'European Divorce' Scenario

In its latest European outlook, Morgan Stanley assesses the likelihood of various forms of eurozone divorce in an enlightening chart.

Further, the research team increased its projections for the possibility of a eurozone break-up higher, amid new, disturbing political and economic signals from the troubled country.

The investment bank notes, “While a eurozone break-up is not our base case scenario, we raise our subjective probability to 35% from 25%, and reduce the timescale of this move to 12-18 months from five years.”

If this still bear-case scenario became a reality, this is the likely form a European divorce would take:

morgan stanley euro crisis breakup probability

Photo: Morgan Stanley

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