In its latest European outlook, Morgan Stanley assesses the likelihood of various forms of eurozone divorce in an enlightening chart.
Further, the research team increased its projections for the possibility of a eurozone break-up higher, amid new, disturbing political and economic signals from the troubled country.
The investment bank notes, “While a eurozone break-up is not our base case scenario, we raise our subjective probability to 35% from 25%, and reduce the timescale of this move to 12-18 months from five years.”
If this still bear-case scenario became a reality, this is the likely form a European divorce would take:
Photo: Morgan Stanley
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