One of our most favourite economic indicators to follow is South Korean exports.
Korean trade data usually comes before the first trading session of the month in Asia, which makes it the first of the world’s major economic indicators to be released.
Because Korea’s exports are heavily exposed to China and Japan — the world’s second and third largest economies — it is consider to have strong predictive power.
In addition to being an early report, it’s also a leading indicator for world trade.
Below is a chart from a new report from Morgan Stanley’s Joachim Fels. It shows how Korean exports are a leading indicator for global trade.
Assuming its predictive powers hold, it would appear that global growth has bottomed.
Photo: Morgan Stanley
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