It’s been a long time since the US economy was in recession.
The current economic expansion currently sits at 93 months based of methodology used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the third-longest stretch of uninterrupted growth since the end of World War II.
This chart from ANZ shows how this expansion ranks to others seen over that period.
And, based off a variety of different models, that stretch looks set to extend for some time yet.
According to Tom Kenny and Giulia Lavinia Specchia, economists at ANZ, the probability of a recession over the next 12 months is small, and lower than where it sat at various points last year.
“Recession talk continues to ease with the latest WSJ monthly economist poll showing the odds of a recession over the next 12 months at 15%, the lowest probability since December 2015,” the pair said.
“The ongoing downgrades to the likelihood of a recession reflect a confluence of factors including improved manufacturing surveys, elevated consumer and business confidence and a much improved global back drop.”
Kenny and Specchia say that ANZ’s own recession index is pointing to an even lower probability of a recession in the next 12 months, sitting at just 3.3%.
Other models put the probability of an economic downturn over the same period at between 3% to 7.2%.
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