The Greek government’s painful negotiations for its next tranche of bailout money are dragging on and on. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras now says he expects a deal within the next couple of weeks — of course, finance minister Yanis Varoufakis also said that he expected a deal by April 24.
Wolfango Piccoli at Teneo Intelligence has laid out in simple terms how the negotiations play out — what different circumstances might lead to success, capital controls, or new elections — and attached probabilities to each of the scenarios.
He reckons there’s a 64% chance overall that a deal is reached and approved by early July, and just a 13.5% of no deal at all. But even then, there’s a pretty high probability of capital controls (45%)
Take a look at the full chart (Head over here to zoom in on the graph if you’re having trouble viewing).
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