On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high.
However, the most remarkable aspect of this achievement may be that it got there with very few notable pullbacks.
“It’s been 90 trading days since the last 5%+ dip and 374 days since a correction,” writes Deutsche Bank’s David Bianco in a new note to clients.
So, does this mean we’re overdue for a sell-off?
Not necessarily, says Bianco.
“Dips of 5%+ are inevitable, but they don’t happen in absence of bad news or emerging risk,” he writes. “Since 1960, the average number of trading days in-between 5%+ dips is 118 and in- between 10%+ corrections is 357 days. The [standard deviation] is 92 and 387 days, respectively.
“Hence, pullbacks aren’t clockwork. Dips come on disappointment, which raises uncertainty that requires reassessment at the time – dips aren’t free. Only 3 years since 1960 without a 5%+ dip from 6mo high: 1964, 1993, & 1995.”
Here’s a chart showing the longest periods between dips and corrections. We’re right around average now.
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