Charts: Despite Q3 Earnings Surprises, Q4 Estimates Are Coming Down

We know that Q3 earnings, on average, have been coming in ahead of expectations so far.  According to Ed Yardeni, analysts are currently expecting $24.91 per share in Q3 earnings, which is up from last week’s estimate of $24.43.  He attributes some of the Q3 surprise to accounting adjustments at the big banks.

However, estimates for Q4 are coming down. He offers this chart that tracks both trends:

YardeniEarningsEstimates

Photo: Dr. Ed’s Blog

He also notes a bearish trend in 2012 earnings estimates, which have been coming down:

The V-shaped recovery in forward earnings, which powered the bull market since March 2009, is losing steam. Indeed, forward earnings has been flat for the past 10 weeks, with a slight downward tilt over the past six weeks.

Analysts are currently expecting $108.90 in 2012 earnings for the S&P 500.  Yardeni expects that number to come down to $100 by year-end.

YardeniEarningsEstimates

Photo: Dr. Ed’s Blog

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