RBC Capital Markets analyst Jay Govender has published a wonderful deep dive on global demographics through to the year 2100.
Currently, the global population is 7.4 billion people, up from 6 billion in 2000. By 2100, Europe’s population will have stayed roughly flat while North America grows by 40%. No surprises there.
But it is surprising that Asia and Latin America are about to take a back seat — The real population driver of the 21st Century will be Africa, Govender says:
This new population will be heavily skewed by growth in the Middle East and Africa, where the UN Population Division expects populations to grow by 72% and 305%, respectively, from now until 2100. Asia and Latin America, once considered the future drivers of population growth, will take a back seat–Central and South America are projected to see a modest 14% growth while East Asia is due to see a 27% contraction. The developed world, meanwhile, will not be able to keep pace. Western Europe should see little change at all while North America, the fastest grower among developed regions, grows its population by 40%.
42% — or 4.2 billion people — of the Earth’s 10 billion inhabitants will be Sub-Saharan African, Middle Eastern, or North African in 2100. No other ethnicity will have more than a 20% share of the whole.
Here is the chart:
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