As the saying goes, a picture paints a thousands words, and the one below is no exception.
From ANZ, it shows Australia’s underlying budget position going back to 1998-99, along with the treasury’s forecasts in its forward estimates.
The bars seen in orange are the treasury’s forecasts from the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook for 2015/16, known as MYEFO, released in December last year.
“The budget is still expected to move into surplus in 2020-21, although the forecast surpluses in the six years from then on remain wafer thin,” said Felicity Emmett and Richard Yetsenga, senior members of ANZ’s economics team.
“The very thin surplus buffer remains a significant source of vulnerability.”