Apple announced yesterday that downloads in the App Store had topped 40 billion. (Apple gave no specific date for when the milestone had been reached.)
In any case, that’s up from 35 billion in October and 30 billion last June. Overall, App Store downloads doubled in the past year alone.
Using an exponential trend line, we predicted in October that downloads would hit 40 billion by the end of 2012. If they maintain their current growth trajectory, downloads will top 55 billion by by mid-2013.
App download growth is a product of many variables.
iOS device sales obviously drive app downloads. On the other hand, there are signs of increasing app fatigue, which could eventually drag on downloads (the average U.S. consumer already has 41 apps on their phones). With 775,000 available apps, choice has never been greater, but the variety creates problems too: navigating the app store has never been more difficult.
Here’s a look at the overall growth trajectory of app downloads since the App Store’s introduction in 2008:
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