As the NBA grows in popularity the league still has a huge problem when it comes to the level of competition. With so much talent concentrated on a few teams, the regular season is nearly meaningless for most teams.
Using the SCHOENE Projection System for ESPN.com, Kevin Pelton projected player stats and team win totals and then simulated the 2013-14 season 1,000 times. Using those simulations, he calculated the probability of each team making the playoffs this season.
What we see is that 10 teams are basically a lock to make the playoffs (95% or greater) barring something completely unforeseen happening. We also see that seven teams have no shot at making the playoffs (5% or less). That leaves just 13 teams competing for the final six playoff spots (three in each conference). For the other 17 teams, the regular season is only about seeding or lottery rank…
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