Day one of the 2015 financial year is as good a time as any to have a look back at what has moved the market in the past 12 months.
The Commonwealth Bank Today released a chart which looks at the 2013-14 financial year and the events which it thinks affected trade on the ASX 200 index.
Plotting the troughs and spikes since July 2013, according to CBA the biggest events weren’t within Australia, they were global. Think Crimea, Syria, the impact of the Dow Jones and S&P 500, US government shut-down and concerns over growth in emerging economies (read: China).
That’s not to say Australian events didn’t impact the ASX. Remember there was an election in September which saw the market climb, the stubbornly high Aussie dollar and of course the Federal Budget.
Over the financial year the total value of the ASX 200 grew 12.3 per cent from 4,803 on June 30, 2013 to close at 5,396 on Monday afternoon.
This financial year, CBA expects cash rates to lift to “less stimulatory levels”, hinging its prediction on where the Aussie dollar tracks and the job market. The bank is forecasting unemployment to stick between 5.5% to 6% over the next 12 months. But Reserve Bank commentary, released this afternoon when it left interest rates on hold at 2.5% suggests otherwise.
There’s more on what the RBA is saying about the Australian economy here.
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