Markets

The largest part of the Australian economy could be about to weaken

The RBA is banking on household spending to help support economic growth, lower unemployment and boost inflationary pressures, potentially allowing it to lift official interest rates. However, it admits there’s great uncertainty about the outlook for household spending, especially given recent weakness in the housing market. In the past, annual […]
The largest part of the Australian economy could be about to weaken
Markets

Australian businesses are having trouble finding suitably skilled staff

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) says a record level of job vacancies and increasing reports of skills shortages will help to bolster wage growth. Businesses surveyed by the NAB suggest skill shortages are now more acute than average levels seen in the past couple of decades. Australia’s latest wage […]
Australian businesses are having trouble finding suitably skilled staff
Markets

Australia’s wage growth data is out tomorrow, and it could dramatically shift expectations for the RBA’s next move on interest rates

The outlook for wage growth is critical for supporting household spending, GDP growth, and inflation in Australia. Wednesday’s Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) for the September quarter will be a blockbuster data release, showing how people’s incomes are progressing relative to inflation and carrying the potential to generate volatility in […]
Australia’s wage growth data is out tomorrow, and it could dramatically shift expectations for the RBA’s next move on interest rates
Markets

Here’s another theory for why Australian pay growth is still lousy

No one really knows why wage growth in Australia and abroad remains so weak despite a tightening in labour market conditions in recent years. The RBA has offered another theory that may explain why wage growth isn’t responding as it did in the past. Whatever the reason, it now appears […]
Here’s another theory for why Australian pay growth is still lousy
Markets

The outlook for Australia’s jobs market is suddenly murkier

Australian businesses surveyed by the NAB are reporting an increase in hiring along with capacity constraints. Current trends point to even lower unemployment in the period ahead. Not all leading labour market indicators are as strong as the NAB’s survey, creating some near-term doubt as to what may be seen […]
The outlook for Australia’s jobs market is suddenly murkier
Markets

Australia’s giant services sector is in good shape and wages are rising, but there are signs job creation is slowing as a result

Activity levels across Australia’s services sector improved again in September, continuing the theme seen in the prior 18 months. Retailers and hospitality firms continue to report stronger demand from consumers, a good sign in regards to household finances. However, margin pressures remain acute for most services firms. Firms also reported […]
Australia’s giant services sector is in good shape and wages are rising, but there are signs job creation is slowing as a result
Markets

Australia has never had so many jobs to fill as it does right now

Australian job vacancies hit a record high in the three months to August. Over the past year, openings reported by businesses surged by 19.3%. That was primarily driven by the private sector where vacancies surged by 20.3%. Coupled with a decline in unemployment over the same period, this indicates that […]
Australia has never had so many jobs to fill as it does right now
Markets

Disloyalty to your employer may be the key to a bigger pay increase

New analysis from RBC Capital Markets shows US workers who quit their job voluntarily to work elsewhere have enjoyed significantly faster pay increases in recent years. While US labour market conditions are significantly tighter than in Australia, they are tightening nonetheless. That trend is expected to continue. The RBA says […]
Disloyalty to your employer may be the key to a bigger pay increase
Markets

Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s wage report

Australian hourly wage rates excluding bonuses increased by 0.62% in the June quarter, leaving the annual increase at 2.14%, up from 2.07% in Q1 2018. Most economists expect wage growth to remain weak, with many unconvinced that rising employment levels will translate to higher wage growth. Australia’s latest wage growth […]
Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s wage report
Markets

Australian wages growth is exactly as low as markets expected

Wage growth in Australia rose by 0.6% for the June quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, leaving annual growth at 2.1%. Both results were in line with forecasts. The Q2 data was the strongest quarterly result since March 2014, although wage growth remains stuck well below the long-term average. Q3 wage […]
Australian wages growth is exactly as low as markets expected
Markets

Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian wage report

Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) for the June quarter will be released this morning (11:30am AEST). After a long period of below-average wage growth, the WPI has become one of the most important releases on the economic calendar. As Australian consumers navigate their way through a combination of high household […]
Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian wage report
Markets

It’s getting more expensive to live in Australia

Cost of living pressures are increasing for Australian households. After-tax incomes needed to increase by 2% to 2.5% over the past year in order to keep up with living expenses, the fastest increase in four years. The largest increase in living expenses was for pensioners. The smallest was for self-funded […]
It’s getting more expensive to live in Australia
Markets

Australia’s manufacturing sector just slowed sharply

Activity levels across Australia’s manufacturing sector slowed sharply last month. Higher production costs, including wage pressures, were cited as factors behind the slowdown. Sale fell sharply during the month, while production, employment and new order growth slowed rapidly. Activity levels across Australia’s manufacturing slowed sharply last month, growing at the […]
Australia’s manufacturing sector just slowed sharply
Markets

Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s inflation report

Australia’s June quarter consumer price inflation (CPI) report came in slightly weaker-than-expected. Financial market movements indicate there’s now less chance of a RBA rate hike arriving in the foreseeable future. Economists have expressed a similar view, although they don’t believe it has any near-term implications for monetary policy settings. For […]
Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s inflation report
Markets

Australia’s inflation report is out tomorrow — here’s what to look out for

Australia’s latest consumer price inflation (CPI) report will arrive tomorrow. It’s arguably the most important data release in Australia when it comes to the outlook for interest rate settings from the Reserve Bank. Economists see headline inflation increasing on the back of surging fuel prices. Underlying inflation, favoured by the […]
Australia’s inflation report is out tomorrow — here’s what to look out for
Markets

Australia’s jobs report beats on all fronts

Australia’s jobs report beat across the board in June. Employment surged by over 50,000, led by strong hiring of full-time workers. Without rounding, Australia’s unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since November 2012. Australia’s jobs report beat across the board in June. According to Australia’s Bureau of Statistics (ABS), […]
Australia’s jobs report beats on all fronts
Markets

The ‘people boom’ that will support Australia’s economy

It’s been more than 26 years since Australia last saw a recession. Along with past reforms, a floating exchange rate and China’s rise to economic prominence, a major factor behind Australia’s economic success is strong levels of population growth. UBS says while this will continue to underpin headline GDP growth […]
The ‘people boom’ that will support Australia’s economy
Markets

It looks like the decline in Australian wage growth is over

The RBA thinks that wage growth has now bottomed in Australia. Pay rates in newly-inked enterprise bargaining agreements (EBAs) in Australia, along with other wage indicators, suggest he may be right. Despite positive signals, it still appears a long way off until worker wages will increase by any meaningful amount. […]
It looks like the decline in Australian wage growth is over
Markets

Australian job openings hit a record high and are rising rapidly

Job vacancies in Australia have risen to the highest level on record. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), vacancies rose by 4.6% to 234,200 in trend terms in the three months to May, leaving the increase on a year earlier at a mammoth 21.4%. The annual increase is […]
Australian job openings hit a record high and are rising rapidly
Markets

Many of Australia’s largest sectors are shedding staff right now

Australian employment growth has slowed sharply this year. The healthcare, retail, education and construction sectors — among the largest employers in Australia — all shed staff over the past three months, according to data from the ABS. Analysis from Morgan Stanley suggests that while jobs growth has slowed, the quality […]
Many of Australia’s largest sectors are shedding staff right now
Markets

Australian jobs growth could be about to slow even further

Australian employment growth is averaging 12,400 per month, well below the 34,300 level seen in 2017. The Department of Jobs and Small Business Internet Vacancy Index fell 0.9% in May, the third monthly decline in a row. Suggests the RBA might be wrong about “forward-looking indicators of labour demand … […]
Australian jobs growth could be about to slow even further
Markets

Here’s what people earn across Australia

In the 2015-16 financial year, the median personal income in Australia was $47,692. Western Australia had four of the top five local government areas with the highest median incomes during that year. The ACT has the highest median income in Australia. Tasmania has the lowest. If you’ve ever wondered what […]
Here’s what people earn across Australia
Markets

ANZ pushes back its RBA rate hike call on housing market weakness

Australia’s housing market downturn will larger that previously expected and while that’s unlikely to derail the Australian economy, it will see the RBA hold off raising official interest rates until the middle of next year, according to ANZ’s Australian economics team. Despite the prospect of stronger economic growth leading to […]
ANZ pushes back its RBA rate hike call on housing market weakness
Markets

Why no one’s really excited by the recent fall in Australian unemployment

Australian unemployment tumbled to 5.4% in May, moving it closer to the level where some estimate that wage pressures will begin to build. Despite the fall in unemployment, pessimism about the outlook for wage growth remains entrenched given broader indicators on labour market slack didn’t improve in early 2018. Labour […]
Why no one’s really excited by the recent fall in Australian unemployment
Markets

Why every Australian worker should care about productivity growth, in one chart

Australian wage and inflationary pressures are very weak at present. One factor that has weighed on wage growth has been weak productivity levels, especially in Australia’s services sector. RBA Governor Philip Lowe says Australia’s business leaders and policymakers should focus on improving productivity to help lift prosperity levels further. RBA […]
Why every Australian worker should care about productivity growth, in one chart
Markets

Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s jobs report

Economists believe Australia’s May jobs report was a “mixed bag”. Most suggest the sharp drop in headline unemployment masked some weak undercurrents in the report. None believe the report points to a large lift in wage pressures, nor any implications for monetary policy settings from the RBA. Australia’s May jobs […]
Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s jobs report
Markets

Australian unemployment drops sharply

Australia’s unemployment rate tumbled to a six-month low last month, largely reflecting a decline in labour force participation. Employment increased by 12,000, below the 19,000 level expected. Full-time jobs were shed, reversing the gain seen in April. Australian labour market underutilisation remained elevated, contributing to weak wage pressures at present. […]
Australian unemployment drops sharply
Markets

Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian jobs report

Australia’s jobs report for May is about to be released. After a stellar 2017, Australia’s labour market has come off the boil this year. Jobs growth has slowed and unemployment has risen, moving further away from the level where wage pressures are expected to build. Economists expect little improvement on […]
Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian jobs report
Markets

Australian companies are paying up to attract new workers

Official wage and salary measures in Australia all remain stuck at around 2% per annum, well below the levels seen in prior years. New data from jobs specialists Adzuna suggests average advertised salaries for new openings are growing substantially faster. The discrepancy may indicate a degree of complacency from workers […]
Australian companies are paying up to attract new workers
Markets

Your 10-second guide to today’s RBA interest rate decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its June interest rate decision later today. Having left the cash rate unchanged for nearly two years, the longest stretch of policy stability on record, few, if anyone, expects that trend will change today. However, it’s been well over a month since […]
Your 10-second guide to today’s RBA interest rate decision
Markets

Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian retail sales report

Australia’s April retail sales report is about to be released. After strengthening in January and February, retail sales underwhelmed in March as higher spending on food was offset by declines in all other categories. Another weak result is expected today. Some forecasters even think that spending may have declined, undermined […]
Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian retail sales report
Markets

TD Securities just ditched its call for RBA rate hikes this year

TD Securities has abandoned its call for RBA rate hikes this year. It says recent economic data has been insufficient to “move the needle for the RBA”. Most economists, and financial markets, don’t see the cash rate increasing until the middle of 2019. Like so many forecasters before them, TD […]
TD Securities just ditched its call for RBA rate hikes this year
Markets

The evidence is mounting that Australia’s jobs boom might be over

Australian employment growth is slowing, leading to a recent increase in unemployment. Online job vacancies fell for the first time in 17 months in April, hinting that the recent slowdown in hiring may extend into the second half of 2018. Falling unemployment will likely be required to help boost wage […]
The evidence is mounting that Australia’s jobs boom might be over
Markets

This lead indicator on Australian home prices points to further declines ahead

Australian capital city home prices have been falling for six months, seeing annual growth turn negative for the first time since 2012. Morgan Stanley’s leading housing market indicator points to further “orderly” declines ahead. It says this will likely weigh on household spending, seeing economic growth decelerate and keep the […]
This lead indicator on Australian home prices points to further declines ahead
Markets

Morgan Stanley says Australian unemployment is likely to keep rising

Australian unemployment is rising again, increasing to 5.6% in April, according to data released by the ABS. As opposed to most other forecasters, Morgan Stanley thinks unemployment will rise further this year. It says this will act to weaken economic growth and keep wage and inflationary pressures muted, seeing the […]
Morgan Stanley says Australian unemployment is likely to keep rising
Markets

The NAB no longer sees a RBA rate hike this year

Australian wage and inflationary pressures remain weak, making it harder to justify rate hikes from the RBA. The NAB, up until recently one of the most hawkish forecasters in Australia, no longer sees the RBA lifting official interest rates this year. It now sees the first rate hike from the […]
The NAB no longer sees a RBA rate hike this year
Markets

Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s jobs report

Australia’s April jobs report had something for everyone. On one hand, employment grew by more than 22,000, snapping two months of declines, with full-time positions rising strongly. And hours worked also jumped by over 1%. However, even with the lift in employment, the size of Australia’s labour force grew even […]
Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s jobs report
Markets

Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian jobs report

Australia’s April jobs report will be released later today. After soaring last year, employment growth has slowed rapidly in early 2018, bucking the trend seen in most leading labour market indicators over the same period. They suggest employment should still be growing at a decent clip, only it isn’t. As […]
Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian jobs report
Markets

Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s wage report

Australian hourly wage rates excluding bonuses increased by just 0.47% in the March quarter, leaving the annual increase unchanged at 2.07%. The vast majority of economists expect weak wage growth will persist until unemployment levels fall. The RBA and federal government expect wage growth to accelerate in the years ahead. […]
Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s wage report
Markets

There’s still no sign of a wage pick-up in Australia

Australian wage growth remains weak, especially for private sector workers. Unemployment is elevated, and expected to remain that way for some time. The RBA is banking on faster wage growth to to help lift inflationary pressures. Australia’s March quarter wage price index (WPI) has come in below expectations, casting renewed […]
There’s still no sign of a wage pick-up in Australia
Markets

Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian wage report

Australia’s March quarter Wage Price Index (WPI) will be released later today. If you haven’t heard of it, perhaps you should. Few things are more important in Australia right now than wage growth, at least from a monetary and fiscal policy perspective. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is looking […]
Your 10-second guide to today’s Australian wage report
Markets

So much of the Australian economy now hangs on getting pay rises

Few things are more important in Australia right now than wage growth, at least from a monetary and fiscal policy perspective. The RBA expects wage growth to help boost inflation, allowing it to lift interest rates. The federal government is also banking on a strong pickup in wages to deliver […]
So much of the Australian economy now hangs on getting pay rises
Markets

If wages don’t rise, Scott Morrison’s budget surplus could be in danger

The Australian government sees wage growth lifting to 3.25% in the 2019/20 fiscal year, an increase that will help to boost nominal GDP growth and tax revenues. Many economists believe these forecasts are too optimistic, creating downside risks to tax revenues in the years ahead. Australia’s unemployment rate sits at […]
If wages don’t rise, Scott Morrison’s budget surplus could be in danger
Markets

Moody’s flags wage growth risks in the federal budget

Here’s Moody’s Investor Services take on Australia’s federal budget. Australia’s budget for 2018-19 moves more quickly along the path of fiscal consolidation than was expected at the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, with a modest surplus forecast in 2019-20, one year earlier than expected. From a sovereign rating perspective, the […]
Moody’s flags wage growth risks in the federal budget
Markets

Here are the economic forecasts that underpinned Australia’s budget last year

Treasurer Scott Morrison will hand down Australia’s 2018/19 budget later this evening, including updated economic forecasts. As a reminder on what the government was thinking six months ago, here are Treasury’s economic projections from its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO) released in December. When it comes to the new […]
Here are the economic forecasts that underpinned Australia’s budget last year
Markets

Cost of living pressures are building for Australian households

Australia’s upcoming federal budget is likely to deliver income tax cuts to low and middle income earners. Data out today from the ABS confirms cost of living pressures are increasing for all household types, regardless of their main source of income. Australian wage data for the March quarter will be […]
Cost of living pressures are building for Australian households
Markets

Why the RBA isn’t rushing to lift interest rates

Like Australia, New Zealand’s jobs market has been running hot over the past year. New Zealand unemployment currently sits at just 4.4%, below the level where wage pressures are expected to accelerate. Australian unemployment remains well above the point where wage growth is expected to accelerate, explaining why wage and […]
Why the RBA isn’t rushing to lift interest rates
Markets

Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s jobs report

Australian employment growth is slowing noticeably. Most economists expect it will be some time until unemployment falls enough to lift wage pressures. Most agree that given recent trends, the RBA will be in no rush to lift interest rates. After a strong period in 2017, it now looks like Australia’s […]
Here’s what economists are saying about Australia’s jobs report
Markets

Australian employment growth is slowing

Australian employment growth is slowing sharply after a very strong period in 2017. Employment grew by just 4,900 in March following a 6,300 decline in February. Unemployment held steady at 5.5%, still well above the 5% level where wage pressures are expected to build. Australian employment growth is slowing sharply […]
Australian employment growth is slowing
Markets

The RBA is now actively discussing raising interest rates

The RBA is now actively discussing lifting official interest rates. Westpac’s Bill Evans says that it’s likely to be years, not months, until the RBA is confident enough to hike. Financial markets aren’t fully priced for a 25 basis point increase in the cash rate until mid-2019. The minutes of […]
The RBA is now actively discussing raising interest rates
Markets

The regions in Australia with the highest paying jobs

If you’re looking for a pay increase and willing to undergo a seachange to do so, the table below from jobs specialists Adzuna may be of interest to you. Based on current job postings on its website, it shows the postcodes with the highest advertised salary levels right now. The […]
The regions in Australia with the highest paying jobs
Markets

Economists think Australia’s jobs boom continued in March

Australia has created jobs in each of the past 17 months, the longest consecutive stretch on record. Economists expect Australia’s jobs juggernaut will extend into an 18th consecutive month in March. Unemployment is tipped to 5.5%, still above the 5% level many believe it will need to hit, or even […]
Economists think Australia’s jobs boom continued in March
Markets

Australians aren’t giving to charities like they used to

Growth in charitable donations in Australia is slowing. Total donations grew by 1.2% in the 12 months to February, below the 4.7% average since late 2011. Older Australians, on average, give more to charity than their younger counterparts. Australians aren’t donating to charities as much as they have previously. According […]
Australians aren’t giving to charities like they used to
Markets

Australia’s services sector is humming at two-year highs

Activity levels across Australia’s services sector improved at the fastest rate since late 2016 in March. New orders, sales, employment and wages paid all improved from a month earlier. The report follows news that activity levels in Australia’s manufacturing sector improved at the fastest pace on record over the same […]
Australia’s services sector is humming at two-year highs
Markets

Housing sales are tanking in Australia’s largest cities

Australia now has more than 10 million homes, the highest number on record. Housing sales are falling sharply in Australia’s largest cities. The Commonwealth Bank says higher transaction fees are contributing to the decline. There are now more than 10 million homes in Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of […]
Housing sales are tanking in Australia’s largest cities