Markets

Gold And Treasuries Getting Slammed After Massive Chicago PMI Number

ISM’s October Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was released at 9:45 AM, and the number surged to 65.9 from last month’s 55.7 reading. Economists were expecting it to decline slightly to 55.0. The survey results suggest Midwest manufacturing is on fire, and gold and Treasuries are taking a hit on the […]
Gold And Treasuries Getting Slammed After Massive Chicago PMI Number
Markets

The Treasury Bill Market Doesn’t Like How Close We’re Playing This

If Congress is unable to produce a budget deal today, the U.S. will hit its October 17 debt ceiling, which is when the Treasury Department will no longer have the authority to borrow money by issuing Treasury securities like T-Bills, T-Notes, and T-Bonds. The stock market has been pretty sanguine […]
The Treasury Bill Market Doesn’t Like How Close We’re Playing This
Markets

Check Out How T-Bill Yields Have Exploded Higher Today

The U.S. Treasury bill market is back to pricing in heightened chances of an imminent default on short-term government obligations as negotiations in Washington, D.C. over ending the government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling break down. “It’s all fallen apart,” said Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, causing gold to spike […]
Check Out How T-Bill Yields Have Exploded Higher Today
Markets

CHART OF THE DAY: The ‘Halloween Bills’ Are Getting Axe-Murdered

Treasury bills are getting hit hard today as the debt ceiling deadline approaches with little signs of an agreement in Congress to raise it. The chart below shows how the yield on the 1-month T-bill maturing October 31 — which traders are referring to as “Halloween bills” — is blowing […]
CHART OF THE DAY: The ‘Halloween Bills’ Are Getting Axe-Murdered
Markets

Bonds Surging And Stocks Dropping After Weak ADP Report

In the wake of the ADP private-sector payroll creation release at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures are sinking and bonds are surging. ADP’s report estimated that 166,000 private-sector payrolls were created in September — below consensus estimates for 180,000, and August’s 176,000 reading was revised down to 159,000. S&P 500 […]
Bonds Surging And Stocks Dropping After Weak ADP Report
Markets

MORGAN STANLEY: ‘READ MY LIPS: BUY BONDS’

Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley’s top interest rate strategist, sent a very clear message in his latest research note, which is titled: “Read My Lips: Buy Bonds.” “Fading the Treasury market rally would not be prudent, at this juncture, given risks to the economic outlook in the coming weeks,” wrote Hornbach […]
MORGAN STANLEY: ‘READ MY LIPS: BUY BONDS’
Markets

Treasuries Are Getting Whacked

U.S. Treasuries have been on a slow grind lower for most of the morning, but the selling has really started to accelerate on heavy volume in the last few minutes. Right now, 10-year Treasury futrues are down 0.3%. The yield on the 10-year note is at 2.89%, 5 basis points […]
Treasuries Are Getting Whacked
Markets

UBS Debunks That Popular Treasury List Of America’s Big Creditors

According to the Treasury Department’s popular Treasury International Capital System (TICS)report, official foreign holdings of Treasury securities fell to $US4.009 trillion in June from $US4.072 trillion in May. So it would seem that the world’s central banks are exiting U.S. securities. “There are, however, many problems with such an interpretation, […]
UBS Debunks That Popular Treasury List Of America’s Big Creditors
Markets

There’s Going To Be A ‘Brutal Reallocation Of Risk’

[credit provider=”Bloomberg TV” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/video/what-will-the-fed-policy-be-for-2013-VqNfiQvoT42Wq~JB3n3LkA.html”] Société Générale FX strategist Sebastien Galy thinks the second half of 2013 will be very interesting for markets.In a note titled “Asset rotation or something more sinister? Pre-Lehman vs now,” Galy writes that once the market is able to anticipate a Fed tightening, which he thinks […]
There’s Going To Be A ‘Brutal Reallocation Of Risk’
Markets

The Bear ‘Pile On’ Is Beginning In The US Bond Market

[credit provider=”Susanne Miller/USFWS via Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/usfwsendsp/5038885231/in/photostream/”] Interesting note from Nomura’s George Goncalves this morning, who notes a bear “pile-on” in the US Treasury market. Current market positioning for bonds has turned to an overall bearish bias as four out of the six key investor types we track had bearish flows in […]
The Bear ‘Pile On’ Is Beginning In The US Bond Market
Markets

MORGAN STANLEY: ‘There’s A Storm Coming’ In The TIPS Market

[credit provider=”BGR” url=”http://bgr.com/2012/06/28/national-weather-service-alerts-smartphones/”] Morgan Stanley interest rate strategist Anton Heese’s latest note to clients comes with an ominous warning in its title: “There’s a Storm Coming.”Heese is referring to the market for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS. This class of government bonds – inflation-linked securities – was a clear outperformer […]
MORGAN STANLEY: ‘There’s A Storm Coming’ In The TIPS Market
Markets

The Real Long-Term Perspective On US Government Bonds

One thing I constantly hear is “interest rates only have one direction to go – UP!”  There’s this myth that t-bond yields and interest rates in general just have to go higher.  But history does not prove this at all.  In fact, history tells quite a different story. 
The Real Long-Term Perspective On US Government Bonds
Markets

The US Treasury Market Has Another Massive Cliff To Worry About In 2013

[credit provider=”Bloomberg TV” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/video/aneta-markowska-doreen-mogavero-roundtable-I2vzVGH~ScOKJNUe0mpYEw.html”] By now, “fiscal cliff” should be a familiar term. The concept has inspired spin-offs like the “monetary cliff” and the “deposit insurance cliff,” among others.Now, Societe Generale economist Aneta Markowska is warning of another cliff – the dangers of which constitute a 75 per cent drop in […]
The US Treasury Market Has Another Massive Cliff To Worry About In 2013
Markets

GOLDMAN: Treasuries Now Have The Worst Risk/Return Profile In Decades

Below is an excellent chart from Goldman Asset Management. It shows the risk/return profile of holding the 10y treasury during different periods of time. “Principal” is the mark-to-market impact of the bond yield increasing by 100bp (1%). “Roll” is the impact of time passage. In one year the 10y bond […]
GOLDMAN: Treasuries Now Have The Worst Risk/Return Profile In Decades
Markets

There’s Another Imminent ‘Cliff’ You Should Know About, And It’s $1.6 Trillion Tall

[credit provider=”flickr / BurningQuestion” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/team_716_pwns/2686071229/”] BofA analysts Priya Misra and Brian Smedley have issued a warning in a recent note to clients about another “cliff” facing markets at the end of the year: the “$1.6 trillion deposit cliff” the U.S. banking system faces when special FDIC insurance provisions expire on […]
There’s Another Imminent ‘Cliff’ You Should Know About, And It’s $1.6 Trillion Tall
Markets

Economists Think The Treasury Bull Market Is Finally Coming To An End

Earlier this month the Wall Street Journal posted the results of its August Survey of economists conducted August 3-6 (xls file). Let’s take another look at their estimates for 10-year yields. The various Federal Reserve strategies in recent years (ZIRP, QE1, QE2 and Operation Twist) have focused on lowering interest […]
Economists Think The Treasury Bull Market Is Finally Coming To An End
Markets

BofA: THE MOST IMPORTANT CHART IN THE WORLD

[credit provider=”Stephen Chernin / Getty Images” url=”http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/treasury-secretary-john-snow-views-a-computer-screen-as-tom-news-photo/3010258#”] Amid the ultra-low volatility in the stock markets, Treasury yields have quietly been on the rise.Some have attributed the move to the Federal Reserve not announcing more bond-buying through quantitative easing.
BofA: THE MOST IMPORTANT CHART IN THE WORLD
Markets

Treasuries Hit A Fork In The Road

The story in the market is the back-up in US interest rates, a stealthy, but significant move that took a lot of folks by surprise over the last few weeks.
Treasuries Hit A Fork In The Road
Markets

Really Bill Gross? Really?

[credit provider=”CNBC”] On CNBC today, PIMCO’s Bill Gross doubled-down on a tweet from earlier about how Paul Ryan’s selection could explain the recent Treasury selloff.He explained to CNBC:
Really Bill Gross? Really?
Markets

One Of David Rosenberg’s Calls Has Been Working Out Brilliantly

[credit provider=”CDNBusinessMag via YouTube” url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1J-NwdJe3k&feature=related”] Most bears on the the economy and the financial markets share the same outlooks.For example, many point to the U.S. government’s mounting debt load and argue that U.S. interest rates are bound to surge. In fact, we can think of 21 people who have argued […]
One Of David Rosenberg’s Calls Has Been Working Out Brilliantly
Markets

Four Wild Policy Options At The Very Bottom Of The Fed’s List

[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_Open_Market_Committee_Meeting.jpg”] The Fed has some tools left in its arsenal. Some of them are extremely unlikely, but considering them is especially interesting.BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Shyams Rajan recently wrote a report on all of the Fed’s remaining options.
Four Wild Policy Options At The Very Bottom Of The Fed’s List
Markets

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Suggests Stocks Will Be Cheap For A While

Economists Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven Davis built the economic policy uncertainty index. Inputs to the model include “frequency of news media references to economic policy uncertainty, the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years, and the extent of forecaster disagreement over future inflation and federal government […]
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Suggests Stocks Will Be Cheap For A While
Markets

US Government Borrowing Costs Hit New All-Time Lows

[credit provider=”Library of Congress” url=”http://www.loc.gov/pictures/resource/cph.3g09459/”] The rate at which the U.S. government pays to borrow hit its lowest level ever at multiple maturities, after the Treasury auctioned $35 billion in two-year notes.Those notes yielded a record low of 0.220 per cent, and the auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.0, […]
US Government Borrowing Costs Hit New All-Time Lows
Markets

JP Morgan: 7 Red Flags In The Market Mean Stocks Are In For a ‘Reality Check’

[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Madrid_may_day375.jpg”] JP Morgan equity strategists Mislav Matejka and Emmanuel are seeing “red flags” in the stock market right now.In a note to clients entitled, “Reality Check – many red flags emerging,” the strategists give seven reasons why a market rally might not be sustainable:
JP Morgan: 7 Red Flags In The Market Mean Stocks Are In For a ‘Reality Check’
Markets

There’s A Nasty Shock In Store For US Treasuries

[credit provider=”William Thomas Cain/Getty Images” url=”http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2011/11/irs-seeks-99123-taxpayers-for-unclaimed-money/”] This year, investors have been gobbling up US treasuries in a desperate effort to search for safety. But would they have done better to grab Australian sovereign debt or Singaporean bank bonds, as a shield against political incompetence in a fractious world?If the wealth management arm […]
There’s A Nasty Shock In Store For US Treasuries
« Previous PageNext Page »