Markets

‘A fool’s game’: 4 economists break down what it’s like forecasting the worst downturn since the Great Recession

A number of economic indicators including retail sales, consumer sentiment, and more have posted record drops amid the coronavirus pandemic, while weekly jobless claims have soared. For economists attempting to forecast economic pain, huge changes in numbers make predictions difficult. For example, in the week ending March 14, jobless claims […]
‘A fool’s game’: 4 economists break down what it’s like forecasting the worst downturn since the Great Recession
Markets

‘Ferocity not previously seen in recent history’: US economic output plunged the most since 2009 in April as the coronavirus lockdown spread

US private-sector output sank in April at its fastest rate since the financial crisis as the coronavirus outbreak intensified and lockdown measures continued, IHS Markit said Thursday. The firm’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index slid to 27.4 from 40.9 in March. A reading below 50 signals economic contraction. Service sector output, […]
‘Ferocity not previously seen in recent history’: US economic output plunged the most since 2009 in April as the coronavirus lockdown spread
Strategy

14 successful companies that started during US recessions

Some major companies got their starts during recessions over the past century. Bill Gates founded Microsoft in 1975, the same year as the oil embargo recession. Many of today’s best-known companies were founded during the Great Recession in 2009, including Uber and Airbnb. Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories. […]
14 successful companies that started during US recessions
Markets

The man behind the market’s favourite recession indicator says his model still works, even as it says everything is fine in the middle of a global economic meltdown

The market’s most famous recession signal no longer points to a recession, but Campbell Harvey, who invented the model says this is because it is predicting a recovery after the recession The yield curve is no longer inverted with the 3-month US trading at 0.14%, below all of the longer-term […]
The man behind the market’s favourite recession indicator says his model still works, even as it says everything is fine in the middle of a global economic meltdown
Markets

Dow surges 705 points as optimism mounts around a US economic reopening

All three US equity indexes surged on Friday as the White House’s plan for an economic reopening lifted investor sentiment. Positive results reported from Gilead’sCOVID-19 treatment trials offered new optimism that an effective drug could arrive sooner than expected. The market posted its second straight week of gains, despite economic […]
Dow surges 705 points as optimism mounts around a US economic reopening
Strategy

10 American cities where jobs are going extinct, ranked

The US is entering a recession predicted to be worse than the 2008 financial crisis, and probably the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s. More than 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment in the last month alone – effectively wiping out the last decade of job growth. […]
10 American cities where jobs are going extinct, ranked
Markets

Dow surges 500 points on optimism around US economic reopening plan

All three US equity indexes surged on Friday as the White House’s plan for an economic reopening lifted investor sentiments. Positive results reported from Gilead‘s coronavirus treatment trials offered new optimism around an effective drug arriving sooner than expected. The market is on pace to close with its second straight […]
Dow surges 500 points on optimism around US economic reopening plan
Markets

The ‘most patriotic thing’ big banks can do to fight the coronavirus recession is raise $200 billion and cancel dividends, Fed’s Kashkari says

The nation’s largest lenders should learn from the 2008 recession and raise TARP-levels of cash to endure the coronavirus recession, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari wrote in a Financial Times op-ed Thursday. Shoring up $US200 billion through equity sales will form a healthy buffer should businesses default on loans […]
The ‘most patriotic thing’ big banks can do to fight the coronavirus recession is raise $200 billion and cancel dividends, Fed’s Kashkari says
Markets

Trump’s vaunted task force to reopen the US economy became a marathon series of phone calls with 200 corporate leaders instead

President Trump’s economic task force became a series of four phone calls with 200 corporate leaders on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported. The president praised the calls, calling them “productive” in a Monday tweet. But some business leaders said they were invited at the last minute to participate, which triggered confusion about […]
Trump’s vaunted task force to reopen the US economy became a marathon series of phone calls with 200 corporate leaders instead
Markets

Morgan Stanley says its ‘biggest fear’ for the coming recession is that policymakers repeat the mistakes they made after the 2008 financial crisis

Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the current downturn will be worse than the global financial crisis. “Our biggest fear is that 2021 repeats the mistakes of 2010,” the team of analysts said in a note published Wednesday, regarding fiscal tightening measures implemented post the financial crisis. Asking people to […]
Morgan Stanley says its ‘biggest fear’ for the coming recession is that policymakers repeat the mistakes they made after the 2008 financial crisis
Markets

Trump’s top trade adviser blasts ‘tone-deaf’ medical experts leading the US’s coronavirus response and says the economic shutdown is worse than the virus

Navarro blasted “tone deaf” medical experts and said he believed the economic shutdown was doing more harm than good in a New York Times interview. “It’s disappointing that so many of the medical experts and pundits pontificating in the press appear tone-deaf to the very significant losses of life and […]
Trump’s top trade adviser blasts ‘tone-deaf’ medical experts leading the US’s coronavirus response and says the economic shutdown is worse than the virus
Markets

McKinsey economists lay out 9 potential coronavirus recession scenarios — ranging from a summer recovery to a ‘black swan of black swans’

Uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus and its future course drove McKinsey partners to model nine economic outcomes for recovery. The firm currently expects one of its four more optimistic scenarios to play out, with social distancing measures driving rapid containment of the outbreak and bringing national economies back online before the […]
McKinsey economists lay out 9 potential coronavirus recession scenarios — ranging from a summer recovery to a ‘black swan of black swans’
Tech

Electricity use in the US has plummeted more over the past 3 weeks than it did during the entire 2008 recession — and economists say that’s a more timely picture of this downturn’s true impact

Countrywide measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak have caused an economic toll, but economists say traditional economic measures can’t accurately measure in real time the extent to which it has plunged. Steve Cicala, an economist at the University of Chicago, has released data that reveals a picture of the economy […]
Electricity use in the US has plummeted more over the past 3 weeks than it did during the entire 2008 recession — and economists say that’s a more timely picture of this downturn’s true impact
Markets

The Fed estimated a ‘more adverse’ coronavirus outbreak would plunge the US into a year-long recession, meeting minutes reveal

The Federal Reserve’s directors envisioned two economic scenarios of differing intensity as the coronavirus began driving business shutdowns and layoffs, Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes released Wednesday showed. A short-lived outbreak would bring an economic recovery in the second half of the year, the board said in the emergency […]
The Fed estimated a ‘more adverse’ coronavirus outbreak would plunge the US into a year-long recession, meeting minutes reveal
Lifestyle

Millennials came limping out of the Great Recession with massive student debt and crippled finances. Here’s what the generation is up against if the coronavirus triggers another recession.

The coronavirus pandemic has ignited fears of a global recession. In the week ending March 28, a record 6.6 million people in America filed for unemployment. A recession would spell particularly bad news for millennials, who will turn 24 to 39 this year, since the oldest among them weathered the […]
Millennials came limping out of the Great Recession with massive student debt and crippled finances. Here’s what the generation is up against if the coronavirus triggers another recession.
Markets

Larry Summers says the US relief package would be hard to execute by the most competent government, calling the US government one ‘run like a highly opportunistic family real-estate business’

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is worried about the execution of the US relief package that he says would be enormously difficult for the most competent of governments. Instead, he adds, “We have a government that is run like a highly opportunistic family real-estate business where people who […]
Larry Summers says the US relief package would be hard to execute by the most competent government, calling the US government one ‘run like a highly opportunistic family real-estate business’
Markets

The legendary economist who predicted the housing crisis says the stock market is probably far from the bottom — in a video interview from his bee yard

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php Economist Dr. Gary Shilling says the global economy was already in a recession before the coronavirus pandemic started. Shilling expects this recession to run at least through the end of the year and says the stock market is probably far and away from the bottom. Shilling thinks one of […]
The legendary economist who predicted the housing crisis says the stock market is probably far from the bottom — in a video interview from his bee yard
Markets

The US is not headed for a depression and it makes sense to buy stocks at current prices, according to the chief strategist of JPMorgan’s $2 trillion asset management arm

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist, says it makes sense to buy stocks at current prices. He points out that stock prices have dropped 25% in the past six weeks and will return to those previous highs within the next few years, which he says gives you […]
The US is not headed for a depression and it makes sense to buy stocks at current prices, according to the chief strategist of JPMorgan’s $2 trillion asset management arm
Markets

‘A taste of things to come’: Italian services activity plunges to 11-year low as national lockdown weighs

Italy’s services activity contracted sharply in March, signalling the national lockdown is hammering the nation’s economy. IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services sector shrank from 52.1 in February to just 17.4 in March, a record 34.7 point slide. The services downturn reflects emergency measures and shutdowns intended […]
‘A taste of things to come’: Italian services activity plunges to 11-year low as national lockdown weighs
Markets

‘Could have been worse’: Consumer confidence fell less than expected in March amid the coronavirus pandemic — but experts warn the pain is just beginning

The US consumer confidence index fell to 120 in March from 132.6 in February, The Conference Board said Tuesday. Consumer confidence has taken a hit amid the coronavirus pandemic and strict social-distancing measures. The March number was not as bad as economists expected, but many are calling for more economic […]
‘Could have been worse’: Consumer confidence fell less than expected in March amid the coronavirus pandemic — but experts warn the pain is just beginning
Markets

This is what economists make of the the Australian government’s latest $130 billion effort to save jobs from the coronavirus downturn

The Federal Government unveiled a $130 billion fiscal stimulus package yesterday which will subsidise Australian workers’ wages. The “incredible” spend will save many jobs, CBA economist Gareth Aird said, but will not save all businesses. Nor will it stop the unemployment rate from rising, or even save Australia from a […]
This is what economists make of the the Australian government’s latest $130 billion effort to save jobs from the coronavirus downturn
Markets

JPMORGAN: The riskiest areas of the market have bottomed out for this recession — and now is the time for traders to start buying again

Most risk assets including stocks and corporate credit are likely at their lows for this recession, JPMorgan strategists said Friday. Criteria including massive fiscal stimulus, recession-level pricing, and a reversal in asset allocation have all been met, the bank said, justifying “adding risk selectively” over the coming weeks. The biggest […]
JPMORGAN: The riskiest areas of the market have bottomed out for this recession — and now is the time for traders to start buying again
Markets

IMF chief says the global economy is already stuck in a coronavirus-fuelled recession — and only a coordinated worldwide effort will save it

The global economy is facing never-before-seen threats that necessitate cross-border cooperation, the International Monetary Fund chief, Kristalina Georgieva, told CNBC on Friday. “The world is now in recession,” she said, adding that the downturn’s length and depth depend on “containing the virus, and having an effective, coordinated response to the […]
IMF chief says the global economy is already stuck in a coronavirus-fuelled recession — and only a coordinated worldwide effort will save it
Markets

Obama’s former economic advisor says Trump is ignoring the most important rule of virus economics — and warns the usual recession playbook is futile against COVID-19

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php Austan Goolsbee, the former economic advisor to President Obama, says “the number one rule of virus economics is that you have to stop the virus before you can do anything about economics.” Goolsbee says after controlling the virus you need to provide relief so that nobody starves or has […]
Obama’s former economic advisor says Trump is ignoring the most important rule of virus economics — and warns the usual recession playbook is futile against COVID-19
Strategy

Businesses could need 3 years worth of cash to weather this recession — but a new study shows half of small businesses only have 27 days of cash in reserve

Social Capital CEO and former Facebook VP Chamath Palihapitiya went on Kara Swisher’s “Recode Decode” podcast and predicted that businesses will need 36 months’ worth of cash – that’s 3 years – to weather the coronavirus recession and recovery. But small businesses – including many startups – likely don’t have […]
Businesses could need 3 years worth of cash to weather this recession — but a new study shows half of small businesses only have 27 days of cash in reserve
Tech

Tech CEOs are facing a big new challenge: impaired visibility

Greetings from the home shelter in San Francisco. I’m Alexei Oreskovic, Business Insider’s West Coast bureau chief and global tech editor, and this Trending, the newsletter where we highlight BI Prime’s biggest tech stories. Whether you’re working from home, or from an office, I hope you’re staying safe and practicing […]
Tech CEOs are facing a big new challenge: impaired visibility
Markets

Bill Gates warns of slow economic recovery from coronavirus and says the US can’t ‘ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’

Gates said the US economy shouldn’t go back to normal for the immediate future and businesses should remain closed during the coronavirus pandemic. “It’s very irresponsible for somebody to suggest that we can have the best of both worlds,” the philanthropist said. President Trump is weighing whether significant restrictions on […]
Bill Gates warns of slow economic recovery from coronavirus and says the US can’t ‘ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’
Markets

Trump and Pence reportedly talked with a handful of Wall Street giants to get their view on how coronavirus is reshaping markets and the economy

The White House spoke with Wall Street giants including Stephen Schwarzman and Paul Tudor Jones on Tuesday about how they view the coronavirus-battered economy and struggling financial markets, CNBC reported. President Trump and Vice President Pence avoided talking about potential relief measures and instead asked the investors how they see […]
Trump and Pence reportedly talked with a handful of Wall Street giants to get their view on how coronavirus is reshaping markets and the economy
Markets

From Broadway receipts to NBA attendance, these 6 charts from JPMorgan show the sudden collapse of key US industries as a coronavirus recession looms

The coronavirus is driving steep downturns for several industries as cities issue stay-at-home orders and ban non-essential activity. Early slumps in the restaurant, movie theatre, and sports industries “will spill into a significant decline in activity in the rest of the economy,” JPMorgan analysts said in a Monday note. The […]
From Broadway receipts to NBA attendance, these 6 charts from JPMorgan show the sudden collapse of key US industries as a coronavirus recession looms
Lifestyle

The coronavirus outbreak has triggered unprecedented mass layoffs and furloughs. Here are the major companies that have announced they are downsizing their workforces.

The spread of the coronavirus is projected to impact millions of jobs worldwide. Over six months, more than 60 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance – that’s more than the number of claims filed during the 18-month Great Recession. The travel and hospitality industries have taken a significant hit. […]
The coronavirus outbreak has triggered unprecedented mass layoffs and furloughs. Here are the major companies that have announced they are downsizing their workforces.
News

The coronavirus pandemic presents an unprecedented challenge to the world’s nations: Choose between economy and health

The coronavirus pandemic has led some governments to impose nationwide lockdowns, shuttering businesses and restricting residents’ movement. Though these lockdowns so far seem effective in slowing the virus’s spread, they come at a high economic cost. The UK avoided enacting severe measures for longer than other coronavirus-stricken countries in Europe, […]
The coronavirus pandemic presents an unprecedented challenge to the world’s nations: Choose between economy and health