Markets

GOLDMAN: Our clients recently asked us a surprising question

Wall Street’s investment pros get paid a lot of money to answer all sorts of questions about the markets and the economy. And there’s no shortage of questions to be answered right now. When will the Fed raise interest rates? How is the strong dollar impacting my portfolio? What is […]
GOLDMAN: Our clients recently asked us a surprising question
News

Conservatives Have No Idea What To Do About Recessions

For the last five years, liberals have promoted three main economic policies to shorten or ameliorate the Great Recession and speed the recovery from it. Deficit-financed spending to compensate for demand gaps in the private sector. Easy monetary policy to raise inflation and support demand. Mortgage modifications to reduce foreclosures […]
Conservatives Have No Idea What To Do About Recessions
Markets

The 12 Countries Most Vulnerable To A Financial Crisis

A new report from Wells Fargo’s Jay Bryson and Mackenzie Miller takes a look at developing economies and their potential exposure to a financial crisis. Bryson and Miller rank the 28 largest developing economies based on economic indicators that are associated with financial crises: “Foreign exchange (FX) reserves, the real […]
The 12 Countries Most Vulnerable To A Financial Crisis
News

The Decline Of The US Middle Class Is Getting Even Worse [CHARTS]

2012 U.S. Census data released last week doesn’t look good for the middle class, with median household income, income growth, and share of the total national income all continuing to decline. Liberal think tank Center for American Progress published several charts on these despressing trends (re-posted below). David Madland, the […]
The Decline Of The US Middle Class Is Getting Even Worse [CHARTS]
Markets

ROSENBERG: Restaurant Sales Haven’t Looked Like This Since The Start Of The Last Recession

[credit provider=”Bloomberg Television” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/video/rosenberg-says-retail-sales-in-disappointing-cycle-kPEox4uxQ8KE47_rbC_N9w.html”] U.S. economic data has been coming in strong. Employment is improving, manufacturing is increasing, and housing continues its rebound.The economic highlight of this week was Wednesday’s February retail sales report, that broadly crushed expectations.
ROSENBERG: Restaurant Sales Haven’t Looked Like This Since The Start Of The Last Recession
Markets

ROSENBERG: This Is Definitely Not An Earnings-Driven Stock Market Rally

[credit provider=”WealthTrack via YouTube” url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAJPbrSyESw”] Experts are split on what’s behind this huge 4-year long bull market.Some believe it has been driven by improving fundamentals.  Others believe it has been driven by the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy.
ROSENBERG: This Is Definitely Not An Earnings-Driven Stock Market Rally
Markets

However Wrong ECRI Might Have Been, Recession Risk Remains

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped again in today’s update. It is now at 129.1 versus the previous week’s 129.7 (revised from 129.6). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) also eased, now at 7.6, down […]
However Wrong ECRI Might Have Been, Recession Risk Remains
Markets

The State Of The Four Official Recession Indicators

Note from dshort: This commentary has been revised to include the latest Industrial Production data released today. I’ve not yet included an update for the January Real Retail Sales data, released earlier this week, because the January CPI used to calculate the number won’t be available until next Thursday.
The State Of The Four Official Recession Indicators
Markets

5 Signs That Americans Are Forgetting The Lessons Of 2008

[credit provider=”AP”] After a period of belt-tightening in 2008, when Americans boosted their personal saving rate to a 15-year high, the annual rate has fallen again, from 5.4 per cent to just 3.9 per cent. Are consumers letting their guard down? Declining savings is one of five signs that American households are […]
5 Signs That Americans Are Forgetting The Lessons Of 2008
News

CBO: One Of The Biggest Long Term Drivers Of The Deficit Is Already Improving

[credit provider=”AP”] Yesterday, we noted that the Congressional Budget Office was forecasting that many short-term drivers of the deficit were being taken care of through upcoming cuts and revenue increases. But, the CBO also reported that one of the most important long term drivers of the debt is becoming less of […]
CBO: One Of The Biggest Long Term Drivers Of The Deficit Is Already Improving
Markets

According To ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan, We Are 8 Months Into A Recession

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped in the latest public data. It is now at 129.7 versus the previous week’s upwardly revised 130.7 (previously 130.6). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. However, the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at […]
According To ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan, We Are 8 Months Into A Recession
Markets

ART CASHIN: The GDP Report Sent A Recession Warning That Hasn’t Been Wrong Since 1948

[credit provider=”CNBC” url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpvP3kGqnNo”] Yesterday, we learned that US GDP unexpectedly contracted 0.1 per cent in Q4, which was much worse than the 1.1 per cent growth expected. Economists spent most of the day downplaying any concerns, arguing that the number was “grossly distorted” by volatile government spending and inventory numbers.
ART CASHIN: The GDP Report Sent A Recession Warning That Hasn’t Been Wrong Since 1948
Markets

Why ECRI’s Weekly Recession Indicator Has Little Credibility

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose in the latest public data. It is now at 130.6 versus the previous week’s 130.4. See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. Likewise the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 7.2, up from last […]
Why ECRI’s Weekly Recession Indicator Has Little Credibility
Markets

This Is The Most Important Decision You’ll Make About Your Investment Portfolio

[credit provider=”Instagram/ecclesiastes311″ url=”http://statigr.am/viewer.php#/detail/368173063756495107_236956197″] A lot of decisions will affect the future value of your portfolio – which investments you buy, how much you concentrate your portfolio into those investments, and when you decide to sell them.But it all starts with one very important question: How much risk are you going […]
This Is The Most Important Decision You’ll Make About Your Investment Portfolio
Markets

The Art And Science Of Forecasting Recessions

This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written.  It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions.  To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the background links and watching the videos.
The Art And Science Of Forecasting Recessions
Markets

STIGLITZ: We’re Overlooking The Global Economy’s Long-Term Problems

[credit provider=”AP Images” url=”http://www.apimages.com/OneUp.aspx?st=k&kw=stiglitz&showact=results&sort=relevance&intv=None&sh=10&kwstyle=and&adte=1325437686&pagez=60&cfasstyle=AND&rids=c0f3a6ba3e114c318ea11ba90dede106&dbm=PY2009&page=1&xslt=1&mediatype=Photo”] In the shadow of the euro crisis and America’s fiscal cliff, it is easy to ignore the global economy’s long-term problems.But, while we focus on immediate concerns, they continue to fester, and we overlook them at our peril.
STIGLITZ: We’re Overlooking The Global Economy’s Long-Term Problems
News

Kids Born During Recessions Are More Likely To Be Teenage Delinquents

[credit provider=”Flickr/cometstarmoon” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/calistan/60424773/”] Babies born during a recession are more likely to be teenage delinquents says a new study.Researchers at the State University of New York found that babies born during difficult economic times were more likely to smoke, drink, steal and get arrested than those born in good financial […]
Kids Born During Recessions Are More Likely To Be Teenage Delinquents
Markets

So, Is This The End Of ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan?

[credit provider=”Bloomberg” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ecri-s-achuthan-defends-call-for-u-s-recession-BhnZZoJ3S8GB6V9sFCeeTw.html”] Wall Street analysts put their reputations at risk everytime they publish a forecast.  And that risk rises exponentially when those forecasts go against the consensus.Few analysts have been more aggressive about their non-consensus calls than ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan, who predicted in September 30, 2011 that the U.S. […]
So, Is This The End Of ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan?
Markets

Serbia Is The Sickest Man Of Europe

[credit provider=”Flickr” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/350org/4042442286/”] EventOn December 18th the World Bank released an estimate for a real GDP contraction of 2% in Serbia in 2012.
Serbia Is The Sickest Man Of Europe
Markets

The 11 US Cities That Are Having The Best Recoveries

[credit provider=”Library Of Congress” url=”http://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2011631311/”] A surprising spike in home prices in some of America’s biggest cities has boosted the recovery, according to Brookings’ latest report.The MetroMonitor looks at employment, unemployment, production, and home prices. We identified the strongest economic recoveries from trough to the third quarter of 2012.
The 11 US Cities That Are Having The Best Recoveries
Markets

The 11 US Cities That Are Having The Worst Recoveries

[credit provider=”Traveler76 via flickr Creative Commons” url=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/mprotasewicz/389763493/sizes/l/in/photostream/”] While the recovery is picking up pace around the country, some cities are stuck in hard times, according to Brookings Metropolitan Program’s latest report.The MetroMonitor looks at employment, unemployment, production, and home prices. We identified the weakest economic recoveries from trough to the third […]
The 11 US Cities That Are Having The Worst Recoveries
Markets

15 Million Jobs Are Missing From The Private Sector

[credit provider=”James Pethokoukis” url=”http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/12/the-jobs-gap-missing-15-million-jobs-from-the-private-sector/1210712jobsgap-2/”] Let’s keep it simple.For the past three decades, US private sector jobs have grown by about 1.8%-2.0% a year.
15 Million Jobs Are Missing From The Private Sector