You might have thought that Monday’s slide in the equity market wiped out quite a bit of the euphoria in the markets. If so, you’d be wrong based on the Hulbert Nasdaq Sentiment Index which is still at its highest level since March 2000:
Just passing along an out of consensus view. This was one of David Rosenberg’s tail risks mentioned the other day and is obviously a big driver of global growth. While China appears to have landed softly, Nomura analysts still see risks to the downside:
[credit provider=”Bloomberg” url=”http://www.bloomberg.com/video/oaktree-s-marks-on-strategy-europe-real-estate-COoIXqQQR1C6oCCzcqEnLw.html”] I found this quote by Howard Marks rather appropriate given the fact that gold is getting hammered in recent weeks and it’s only fair that I pile on. In a February 2nd interview Marks said: “There is nothing intelligent to be said about gold. Nobody can tell […]
James Montier never disappoints. This time he discusses how hyperinflation is “not just a monetary phenomenon” (if that doesn’t sound familiar to readers, it should). His latest note out of GMO covers the subject of hyperinflations and he’s obviously been reading MMT. He writes:
Here’s an interesting bit of correlation (and causation?) for you. Have a look at the chart I formulated below showing NYSE Margin Debt and the S&P 500. The two data sets show a correlation over 85%. Now, this is really interesting in that it melds with our work on Monetary […]
For the first time since the recovery began, Warren Buffett’s favourite valuation metric has breached the 100% level. That, of course, is the Wilshire 5,000 total market cap index relative to GNP. See the chart below for historical reference.
I saw this headline over at Calculated Risk regarding the new “monetary policy” in Japan:
The first reading on rail traffic showed a modest decline to -0.1%. The beginning of the year is usually a volatile period for rail traffic trends so it’s better to take a bit longer view here. The 12 moving moving average remains modestly positive at 2.23%. That’s consistent with an […]
Rail traffic is finishing 2012 in a big way. This week’s rail traffic data marks the second consecutive week of big gains with a 10.2% reading in year over year intermodal gains. This was an improvement over last week’s 8% gains and a big improvement over the 12 week moving […]
In this morning’s note David Rosenberg touched on the 7 phases of Fed policy.
[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:BNSF_GE_Dash-9_C44-9W_Kennewick_-_Wishram_WA.jpg”] The AAR reported a 3.6% increase in intermodal traffic this week and a -2.1% decline in carloads. This data has been remarkably consistent in recent weeks though it’s off slightly in the last few months. The 10 week moving average has dipped just slightly to 5% […]
One of the bigger myths in the world of economics and finance remains the cause of hyperinflation. As I’ve highlighted many times over the years, hyperinflation is more than just a monetary phenomenon (and misunderstanding this led to many incorrect hyperinflation predictions in the USA in recent years). In fact, the monetary […]
I know it’s all the rage to talk about all the economic negatives these days, but what if things turn out “better than expected”? Something to ponder via Print Turner:
James Galbraith was recently interviewed in the University of Texas Alumni magazine and offered an opinion on the “most common misconception about the economy” (via The Alcalde):
Interesting comments here by Robert Shiller on the myth of the last few decades that housing is now an investment asset (via Motley Fool):
A growing number of indicators suggest that the market is running out of steam. Equities have been in a temporary sweet spot where investors have been factoring in a self-sustaining U.S. economic recovery while also anticipating the imminent institution of QE3. This is a contradiction. If the economy were indeed as strong as they say, […]